Ensemble learning model identifies adaptation classification and turning points of river microbial communities in response to heatwaves

Heatwaves are a global issue that threaten microbial populations and deteriorate ecosystems. However, how river microbial communities respond to heatwaves and whether and how high temperatures exceed microbial adaptation remain unclear. In this study, we proposed four types of pulse temperature-induced microbial responses and predicted the possibility of microbial adaptation to high temperature in global rivers using ensemble machine learning models. Our findings suggest that microbial communities in parts of South American (e.g., Brazil and Chile) and Southeast Asian (e.g., Vietnam) countries are likely to change due to heatwave disturbance from 25 to 37 degrees C for consecutive days. Furthermore, the microbial communities in approximately 48.4% of the global river gauge stations are prone to fast stress inadaptation, with approximately 76.9% of these stations expected to exceed microbial adaptation after heatwave disturbances. If emissions of particulate matter with sizes not more than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5, an indicator of human activities) increase by twofold, the number of global rivers associated with the fast stress adaptation type will decrease by similar to 13.7% after heatwave disturbances. Understanding microbial responses is crucially important for effective ecosystem management, especially for fragile and sensitive rivers facing heatwave events.

Automated summary

Heatwaves threaten microbial populations in global rivers. Microbial communities in South America and Southeast Asia are likely to change due to heatwaves. Approximately 48.4% of river gauge stations worldwide are prone to fast stress inadaptation, with about 76.9% of these stations expected to exceed microbial adaptation after heatwave disturbances. Doubling particulate matter emissions can reduce the number of rivers associated with fast stress adaptation type after heatwave disturbances.