4.7 Article

The Importance of Accounting for the North Atlantic Oscillation When Applying Observational Constraints to European Climate Projections

相关参考文献

注意:仅列出部分参考文献,下载原文获取全部文献信息。
Article Environmental Sciences

Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate

Andrew P. Schurer et al.

Summary: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a significant impact on wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and surrounding regions. Observations show that the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability compared to most climate models. To understand the role of NAO as a driver of multi-decadal climate variability, simulations were conducted using a data-assimilation technique. The results reveal that NAO variability leads to substantial multi-decadal trends in temperature, precipitation, and sea-ice concentration, particularly in the Atlantic subpolar gyre region.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Quantifying the rarity of extreme multi-decadal trends: how unusual was the late twentieth century trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation?

R. Eade et al.

Summary: This study examines extreme trends in historical climate indices and finds that stochastic models may not fully represent the mechanism for low frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2022)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Climate models fail to capture strengthening wintertime North Atlantic jet and impacts on Europe

Russell Blackport et al.

Summary: The study finds that current climate models fail to accurately predict the wintertime atmospheric circulation and precipitation over Europe, as they do not capture the long-term observed trends and underestimate internal variability.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Nathan P. Gillett et al.

Summary: Research demonstrates a significant human influence on global climate, particularly through emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Urgent action is needed to address climate change in order to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Christopher H. O'Reilly et al.

Summary: Future projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate based on climate model simulations underestimate the uncertainty originating from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining regional changes under global warming conditions. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for observed regional climate variability, but is systematically weaker in coupled climate models on multidecadal timescales.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Toward Consistent Observational Constraints in Climate Predictions and Projections

Gabriele C. Hegerl et al.

Summary: Observations play a crucial role in model evaluation, providing constraints for future predictions and projections. Constraints for uninitialized projections are usually based on how well models simulate climatology and climate change. Skill scores for initialized predictions help evaluate model performance and the value of initialization compared to projections.

FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE (2021)

Article Environmental Sciences

Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period

Katarzyna B. Tokarska et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

D. M. Smith et al.

NATURE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

Lukas Brunner et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Estimating the Transient Climate Response from Observed Warming

Andrew Schurer et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets

Richard C. Cornes et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2018)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science

Adam A. Scaife et al.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2018)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections

Clara Deser et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2017)

Article Environmental Sciences

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

Carley Iles et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2017)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

H. Shiogama et al.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2016)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization

Veronika Eyring et al.

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2016)

Article Computer Science, Theory & Methods

The Earth System Grid Federation: An open infrastructure for access to distributed geospatial data

Luca Cinquini et al.

FUTURE GENERATION COMPUTER SYSTEMS-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GRID COMPUTING AND ESCIENCE (2014)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006

M. R. Haylock et al.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2008)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Estimates of uncertainty in predictions of global mean surface temperature

J. A. Kettleborough et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2007)

Review Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850-2004

Rob Allan et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2006)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

DJ Frame et al.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2005)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory

MR Allen et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2003)

Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change

MR Allen et al.

NATURE (2000)