Higher Exposure of Poorer People to Emerging Weather Whiplash in a Warmer World

The emergence of abrupt shift from drought to downpour has attracted widespread attention in recent years, with particularly disastrous consequences in low-income regions. However, the spatiotemporal evolution and poverty exposure to such drought-to-downpour events remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the connection between poverty and drought-to-downpour events based on three data products and climate models on a global scale. We find that the drought-to-downpour events increased by 24%-48% in the poorest 20% of the world's population from 1980 to 2010. The drought-to-downpour events do not appear to be occurring more frequently in most regions globally, just affecting regions with higher poverty rates more frequently, especially in African countries. The exposure inequality remains under future socioeconomic pathways, with a nearly fivefold increase in the exposure for the poorer populations. Poverty exposure to more frequent drought-to-downpour events demands greater support for climate adaptation in low-income countries to reduce poverty and inequality. Many regions have suffered greatly from recent occurrences of abrupt shift from drought to downpour, suggesting that the emerging threat is a global challenge. Such drought-to-downpour events pose challenges to water infrastructures in developed countries, let alone those poor countries with limited adaptation capacity and resources. However, the connection between the drought-to-downpour events and poverty incidence remains poorly understood. Here, we show that such drought-to-downpour events experienced by the poorest 20% of the world's population increased significantly by 24%-48% from 1980 to 2010. Such a significant increase, however, is not observed for the remaining wealthiest 80%. The drought-to-downpour events do not appear to be occurring more frequently in most global regions, just affecting regions with higher poverty rates more frequently, especially in African countries. Climate projections show that such inequality would remain in a warming climate. Our results highlight the urgency to provide greater support for climate adaptation in low-income countries to reduce poverty and inequality. The connection between poverty incidence and drought-to-downpour weather whiplashes is uncovered on a global scaleThe drought-to-downpour events increased by 24%-48% in the poorest 20% of the world's population from 1980 to 2010The drought-to-downpour events do not appear to be occurring more frequently in most global regions, just affecting regions with higher poverty rates more frequently

Automated summary

The sudden shift from drought to downpour has gained attention in recent years, particularly in low-income regions. From 1980 to 2010, the frequency of drought-to-downpour events increased by 24%-48% in the poorest 20% of the global population. Although these events do not appear to be occurring more often globally, they are more frequent in regions with higher poverty rates, especially in African countries. Future climate projections suggest that this inequality in exposure will persist. Therefore, greater support for climate adaptation is necessary in low-income countries to reduce poverty and inequality.