Regulating Fine-Scale Resolved Convection in High-Resolution Models for Better Hurricane Track Prediction

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Performance of 2020 Real-Time Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from High-Resolution Global-Nested Hurricane Models: HAFS-globalnest and GFDL T-SHiELD

Andrew Hazelton et al.

Summary: This study analyzes the results of the global-nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS-globalnest) and a similar model, T-SHiELD, in real-time forecasts for 2020. HAFS-globalnest outperformed other operational and experimental models in track forecast skill, and T-SHiELD also showed promising track skills. However, HAFS-globalnest had a positive bias in intensity forecasts due to the lack of ocean coupling, while T-SHiELD had a smaller intensity bias. The modified planetary boundary layer scheme and increased vertical levels in HAFS improved storm size forecasts compared to the previous version. Both HAFS-globalnest and T-SHiELD exhibited a persistent right-of-track bias at 4-5-day forecast lead times, which is being further investigated.

WEATHER AND FORECASTING (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

An Investigation of Large Cross-Track Errors in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in the GEFS and ECMWF Ensembles

Nicholas M. Leonardo et al.

Summary: The study reveals that some tropical cyclone forecasts exhibit left-of-track bias and right-of-track bias. The left-of-track bias may be attributed to the underprediction of a weak upper-level trough, while the right-of-track bias is possibly associated with the underestimation of subtropical ridge strength.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2021)

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Editorial Material Multidisciplinary Sciences

Challenges and outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling

E. J. Kendon et al.

Summary: Climate projections at very high resolution, such as 'convection-permitting' models, offer significant advancements in understanding future changes and extreme weather events. However, challenges remain, including intense heavy rainfall and representation of land-surface processes. Despite these challenges, significant progress is expected in the coming years.

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

On the Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity and Structure to Horizontal Tracer Advection Schemes in FV3

Kun Gao et al.

Summary: The study found that using a positive-definite scheme significantly improves hurricane intensity prediction accuracy compared to a monotonic scheme, resulting in notable storm structural differences and affecting the location of eyewall convection.

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences