期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 50, 期 17, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL104347
关键词
Antarctic; sea ice prediction
A deep learning model called SIPNet has been developed to predict Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) at subseasonal scale, filling the gap in prediction capability. Autumn SIC variability contributes the most to sea ice predictability, whereas spring contributes the least. SIPNet can also capture the signal of ENSO and SAM on sea ice.
Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) prediction at seasonal scale has been documented, but a gap remains at subseasonal scale (1-8 weeks) due to limited understanding of ice-related physical mechanisms. To overcome this limitation, we developed a deep learning model named Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPNet) that can predict SIC without the need to account for complex physical processes. Compared to mainstream dynamical models like European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, as well as a relatively advanced statistical model like the linear Markov model, SIPNet outperforms them all, effectively filling the gap in subseasonal Antarctic SIC prediction capability. SIPNet results indicate that autumn SIC variability contributes the most to sea ice predictability, whereas spring contributes the least. In addition, the Weddell Sea displays the highest sea ice predictability, while predictability is low in the West Pacific. SIPNet can also capture the signal of ENSO and SAM on sea ice.
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