Predicting Tropical Cyclone-Induced Sea Surface Temperature Responses Using Machine Learning

This study proposes to construct a model using random forest method, an efficient machine learning-based method, to predict the spatial structure and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) cooling induced by northwest Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), a process of the so-called wind pump. The predictors in use include 12 predictors related to TC characteristics and pre-storm ocean conditions. The model is shown to skillfully predict the spatiotemporal evolutions of the cold wake generated by TCs of different intensity groups, and capture the cross-case variance in the observed SST response. Another model is further built based on the same method to assess the relative importance of the 12 predictors in determining the magnitude of the maximum cooling. Computations of feature scores of those predictors show that TC intensity, translation speed and size, and pre-storm mixed layer depth and SST dominate, depending on the area where the cooling is considered. While many studies have been devoted to understanding the processes and mechanisms underlying the sea surface temperature (SST) cooling induced by tropical cyclones (TCs), few studies have attempted to predict the spatial and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) cooling triggered by TCs. In this study, we proposed to achieve this goal by building a model using an efficient and robust machine learning-based method. The constructed model uses 12 predictors associated with TC characteristics (e.g., intensity, and translation speed) and pre-storm ocean states (e.g., mixed layer depth). The model performs well in producing the TC-induced spatial structure and temporal evolution of the cold wake and can capture most of the variance in the observed SST response. We quantified the relative importance of the 12 predictors, and found that TC intensity, translation speed and size, and pre-storm mixed layer depth and SST dominate in deciding the magnitude of the SST response. The results and proposed method have important implications for predicting the response of ocean primary production to the TC wind pump effects. A machine learning-based model is built to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the tropical cyclone-induced sea surface temperature responseThe model well predicts the spatial structure and temporal evolution of the observed response and captures the observed cross-case varianceFeature scores are computed to assess the relative importance of the predictors in determining the magnitude of the SST response

Automated summary

This study proposes a model using random forest method to predict the spatial and temporal evolution of sea surface temperature cooling induced by tropical cyclones. The model achieves good prediction performance by using 12 predictors related to tropical cyclone characteristics and pre-storm ocean conditions.