Housing market dynamics of the post-Sandy Hudson estuary, Long Island Sound, and New Jersey coastline are explained by NFIP participation

How flooding affects home values can determine the path of economic recovery for communities and have lasting impacts on national and global financial systems. Yet, our understanding of how flood insurance, community risk perception, and past flooding events shape future housing prices (HPs) remains limited. To explore this, we used a socio-environmental (SE) model and studied the temporal impacts of flooding on mean housing values across 496 coastal census tracts of New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey, US, from 1970 to 2021. The modeling exercise demonstrated that the initial economic impact of Hurricane Sandy was largely absorbed by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP); however, the region then exhibited a long-term decline in home values, which was well described by an interrupted time series model. We found significant correlations between SE model parameters describing HP change and those describing tract-scale behaviors and perceptions, suggesting that the salience of past flooding events and NFIP participation may be important regional drivers of HPs. Tracts with greater post-flood change in active insurance policies exhibited larger decreases in mean home values than those with more stable NFIP participation. An improved understanding of relationships between HPs, flood insurance, and community perceptions could support more equitable distributions of resources and improved policy interventions to reduce flooding risk.

Automated summary

How flooding affects home values can significantly impact economic recovery and financial systems at both local and global levels. However, our understanding of the complex relationship between flood insurance, community risk perception, and past flooding events in shaping future housing prices is still limited. Through a socio-environmental model, this study examined the long-term effects of flooding on housing values in coastal areas of New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey from 1970 to 2021. The findings suggest that the initial economic impact of Hurricane Sandy was mitigated by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), but the region experienced a sustained decline in home values afterwards. The study also found that the changes in housing prices were influenced by past flooding events and the level of NFIP participation. A better understanding of these relationships can inform more equitable resource allocation and policy interventions to reduce flooding risk.