Forecast and structural characteristics of China's oil product consumption embedded in bottom-line thinking

How to judge the bottom line of China's oil product consumption is of great significance for energy security. We innovatively divide oil product consumption into bottom-line and non-bottom-line consumption and use the DMA method for forecasting. The results show that bottom-line consumption of oil products will reach 197.29-213.47 Mt in 2025 under the low development scenario, while it will increase to 236.21-250.37 Mt and 269.62-285.8 Mt in the baseline and high development scenarios, respectively. By reducing the high develop-ment scenario to the low development scenario, non-bottom-line consumption of oil products can save about 22.09-25.32 Mt. The wide variation in the forecast results under the multi-dimensional scenarios reflects the flexibility and feasibility of future policy combinations to regulate oil consumption. Meanwhile, for any oil product, any combination of policy scenarios will control bottom-line and non-bottom-line consumption in the same direction but with different impact effects. Gasoline, kerosene, and diesel will account for a lower limit of about 44%, 14%, and 27%, respectively, in 2025.

Automated summary

Judging the bottom line of China's oil product consumption is crucial for energy security. We categorize oil product consumption into bottom-line and non-bottom-line consumption, and use the DMA method for forecasting. The results show that under different development scenarios, the bottom-line consumption of oil products in 2025 will range from 197.29-213.47 Mt in the low development scenario, 236.21-250.37 Mt in the baseline scenario, and 269.62-285.8 Mt in the high development scenario. By reducing the high development scenario to the low development scenario, non-bottom-line consumption can be reduced by about 22.09-25.32 Mt. The forecast results under different scenarios demonstrate the flexibility and feasibility of future policy combinations in regulating oil consumption. Moreover, each policy scenario will have a different impact on the bottom-line and non-bottom-line consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, with their respective lower limits in 2025 being approximately 44%, 14%, and 27%.