Prognostic score and sex-specific nomograms to predict survival in resectable lung cancer: a French nationwide study from the Epithor cohort database

Background Prognostic assessment in patients undergoing cancer treatments is of paramount importance to plan subsequent management. In resectable lung cancer availability of an easy-to use nomogram to predict long-term outcome would be extremely useful to identify high-risk patients in the era of perioperative targeted and immune therapies. Methods We retrieved clinical, surgical and pathological data of all consecutive patients included in Epithor, the database of French Society of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, and operated on between 2003 and 2020 for non-small cell lung cancer in a curative intent. The primary endpoint was overall survival up to 5 years. We assessed prognostic significance of available variables using Cox modelling, in the whole dataset, and in men and in women separately, and performed temporal validation. Finally, we constructed two sex-specific nomograms. Survivals by fifths of score were assessed in the development and temporal validation sets. Findings The study included 62,633 patients (43,551 men and 19,082 women). Median survival time was 9.2 years. Nine factors had strong prognostic impact and were used to construct nomograms. The optimism-corrected c statistic for the prognostic score was 0.689 in the development sample, and 0.726 (95% CI 0.718-0.735) in the temporal validation sample. All differences between adjacent fifths of score were significant (P < 0.0001). Figures of 3-year OS by fifths of score were 92.2%, 83.0%, 74.3%, 64.0%, and 43.4%, respectively, in the development set and 93.3%, 88.4%, 81.0%, 73.7%, 55.7% in the temporal validation set. Performance of score was maintained when stratifying by stage of diseases. Interpretation In the present work, we report evidence that long-term overall survival after resection of NSCLC can be predicted by an easy to construct and use composite score taking into account both host and tumour related factors. Funding Epithor is funded by FSTCVS.

Automated summary

In this study, a simple and easy-to-use scoring system was developed using clinical data to predict the 5-year overall survival in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer. The scoring system showed good predictive accuracy and could provide personalized predictions based on disease stage.