Deglacial perspectives of future sea level for Singapore

Low elevation equatorial and tropical coastal regions are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. Here we provide probability perspectives of future sea level for Singapore using regional geological reconstructions and instrumental records since the last glacial maximum similar to 21.5 thousand years ago. We quantify magnitudes and rates of sea-level change showing deglacial sea level rose from similar to 121 m below present level and increased at averaged rates up to similar to 15 mm/yr, which reduced the paleogeographic landscape by similar to 2.3 million km(2). Projections under a moderate emissions scenario show sea level rising 0.95 m at a rate of 7.3 mm/yr by 2150 which has only been exceeded (at least 99% probability) during rapid ice mass loss events similar to 14.5 and similar to 9 thousand years ago. Projections under a high emissions scenario incorporating low confidence ice-sheet processes, however, have no precedent during the last deglaciation.

Automated summary

Low elevation equatorial and tropical coastal regions are at high risk due to sea level rise. Based on regional geological reconstructions and instrumental records, we provide probability perspectives of future sea level for Singapore. The quantification of sea-level change reveals that during the last deglaciation, sea level rose by approximately 121 m and had an average rate of 15 mm/yr, resulting in a reduction of the paleogeographic landscape by about 2.3 million km(2). Projections suggest that under a moderate emissions scenario, sea level is expected to rise by 0.95 m at a rate of 7.3 mm/yr by 2150, which has only been exceeded during rapid ice mass loss events similar to 14.5 and similar to 9 thousand years ago. However, projections under a high emissions scenario incorporating uncertain ice-sheet processes have no precedent during the last deglaciation.