期刊
TROPICAL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE
卷 8, 期 4, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040198
关键词
coronavirus disease-19; climate; temperature; precipitation; humidity
Research indicates that climate can impact the distribution, incidence, and fatality rates of COVID-19. In this study, an ensemble niche modeling approach was used to project the climatic suitability of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. Various climate data, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity, were incorporated into seven statistical algorithms to assess the climate suitability. The study found that temperature range and precipitation seasonality significantly influenced the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Brazil.
Studies have shown that climate may affect the distribution of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its incidence and fatality rates. Here, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project the climatic suitability of COVID-19 cases in Brazil. We estimated the cumulative incidence, mortality rate, and fatality rate of COVID-19 between 2020 and 2021. Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected to model the climate suitability for COVID-19 cases from diverse climate data, including temperature, precipitation, and humidity. The annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality showed a relatively high contribution to the models, partially explaining the distribution of COVID-19 cases in Brazil based on the climatic suitability of the territory. We observed a high probability of climatic suitability for high incidence in the North and South regions and a high probability of mortality and fatality rates in the Midwest and Southeast regions. Despite the social, viral, and human aspects regulating COVID-19 cases and death distribution, we suggest that climate may play an important role as a co-factor in the spread of cases. In Brazil, there are regions with a high probability that climatic suitability will contribute to the high incidence and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据