Temporal Changes in Minimum and Maximum Temperatures at Selected Locations of Southern Africa

Agriculture is threatened by ever increasing temperatures and this trend is predicted to continue for the near and distant future. The negative impact of rising temperatures on agri-food systems is also compounded by the erratic and highly variable rainfall in most parts of southern Africa. Minimum and maximum temperatures' variability and trend analysis were undertaken using daily time series data derived from 23 meteorological stations spread across Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The modified Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen slope models were used to assess temperature trends and their magnitudes. Temperature varied with location and minimum temperature was more variable than maximum temperature. Semi-arid regions had higher variation in minimum temperature compared to humid and coastal environments. The results showed an upward trend in minimum (0.01-0.83 degrees C over a 33-38 year period) and maximum (0.01-0.09 degrees C over a 38-57 year period) temperatures at 9 and15 locations, respectively. A downward trend in minimum temperature (0.03-0.20 degrees C over 38-41 years) occurred in South Africa at two locations and Dedza (Malawi), while a non-significant decline in maximum temperature (0.01 degrees C over 54 years) occurred at one location in coastal dry sub-humid Mozambique. The results confirm the increase in temperature over 33-79 years, and highlight the importance of including temperature when designing climate change adaption and mitigation strategies in southern Africa and similar environments.

Automated summary

Climate change, particularly the increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall, is having a negative impact on agri-food systems in southern Africa. The study analyzed temperature trends using data from meteorological stations in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, showing an upward trend in minimum and maximum temperatures at several locations. The findings emphasize the importance of considering temperature in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in similar environments.