Evidence of Global Convergence: Perspectives for Economic and Territory Planning in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Governments and international organizations have implemented efforts to promote the convergence of socioeconomic indicators between countries. The structural funds adopted by the European Union institutions are examples of policy instruments implemented to promote convergence in the GDP (gross domestic product) among the member states. Nonetheless, these policy measures are dependent on several internal and external factors, making these efforts vulnerable to exogenous shocks such as those associated with the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. From this perspective, this research aims to analyze the convergence trends over the last few years and assess the respective implications of the pandemic on this framework. For that, statistical information from the World Bank for the GDP per capita was considered for the period 2006-2021 for all countries and organized for each group of levels of income and each world region. These data were analyzed through panel data approaches, considering the developments in convergence theory. The results show that the signs of convergence are different for each level of income and each region, highlighting the idea of clubs of convergence. On the other hand, the pandemic disturbed the trends of convergence verified worldwide, but nonetheless, it seems to be on a smaller scale than the global financial crisis. In any case, these findings should be confirmed in future research with more recent data.

Automated summary

Governments and international organizations have implemented policy measures to promote convergence in socioeconomic indicators between countries. However, these efforts are susceptible to external shocks, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. This research analyzes convergence trends in GDP per capita and assesses the impact of the pandemic on this framework. The results show different convergence patterns based on income levels and regions, highlighting the concept of convergence clubs. Despite disrupting global convergence trends, the pandemic seems to have a smaller scale impact compared to the global financial crisis. Further research with more recent data is needed to confirm these findings.