Should I stay or should I board? Willingness to wait with real-time crowding information in urban public transport

Overcrowding is a major phenomenon affecting travel experience in urban public transport, whose negative impacts can be potentially mitigated with real-time crowding information (RTCI) on public transport vehicle departures. In this study, we investigate the willingness to wait (WTW) with instantaneous RTCI to avoid the in -vehicle (over)crowding the passenger faces, focusing specifically on urban crowding context (i.e. bus and tram systems). We conduct a stated-preference survey in Krakow (Poland), where we examine the choice probability between boarding now a more crowded vehicle vs. waiting at the stop for a less-crowded PT departure, and estimate a series of discrete choice models. Results show that 50-70% of respondents consider skipping a first departure which is excessively overcrowded and 10-30% would skip a vehicle with moderate standing crowding on-board. Acceptable waiting times typically range between 2 and 13 min, depending on crowding level and propensity to arrive on-time, but may even exceed 20 min in individual cases. These findings indicate that RTCI can induce a substantial WTW, affecting travel behaviour. We discuss its implications for mitigating service disruptions and demand management pol-icies, including prospective support for public transport recovery in the aftermath of covid-19 crisis.

Automated summary

This study investigates the willingness to wait (WTW) with real-time crowding information (RTCI) to avoid in-vehicle overcrowding in urban public transport, specifically bus and tram systems. Results show that a significant percentage of respondents would consider skipping crowded vehicles and acceptable waiting times vary depending on the crowding level. These findings highlight the importance of RTCI in mitigating disruptions and managing demand in public transport, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis.