The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy

For many governments, enacting green policies is a priority, but such policies often impose on citizens substantial and uneven costs. How does the introduction of green policies affect voting? We study this question in the context of a major ban on polluting cars introduced in Milan, which was strongly opposed by the populist right party Lega. Using several inferential strategies, we show that owners of banned vehicles-who incurred a median loss of euro3,750-were significantly more likely to vote for Lega in the subsequent elections. Our analysis indicates that this electoral change did not stem from a broader shift against environmentalism, but rather from disaffection with the policy's uneven pocketbook implications. In line with this pattern, recipients of compensation from the local government were not more likely to switch to Lega. The findings highlight the central importance of distributive consequences in shaping the political ramifications of green policies.

Automated summary

When green policies impose substantial and uneven costs on citizens, the political ramifications are shaped by the distributive consequences. In the case of a major ban on polluting cars in Milan, owners of banned vehicles who incurred financial losses were more likely to vote for the populist right party Lega in subsequent elections. This electoral change was driven by dissatisfaction with the policy's economic implications, rather than a broader opposition to environmentalism.