Regional seismic loss estimation and critical earthquake scenarios for the Western Quebec seismic zone

Earthquakes pose potentially substantial risks to residents in the Western Quebec seismic zone of eastern Canada, where Ottawa and Montreal are located. In eastern Canada, the majority of houses are not constructed to modern seismic standards and most homeowners do not purchase earthquake insurance for their homes. If a devastating earthquake strikes, homeowners would be left unprotected financially. To quantify financial risks to homeowners in the Western Quebec seismic zone, regional earthquake catastrophe models are developed by incorporating up-to-date public information on hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The developed catastrophe models can quantify the expected and upper-tail financial seismic risks by considering a comprehensive list of possible seismic events as well as critical earthquake scenarios based on the latest geological data in the region. The results indicate that regional seismic losses could reach several tens of billions of dollars if a moderate-to-large earthquake occurs near urban centres in the region, such as Montreal and Ottawa. The regional seismic loss estimates produced in this study are useful for informing earthquake risk management strategies, including earthquake insurance and disaster relief policies.

Automated summary

Earthquakes in the Western Quebec seismic zone in eastern Canada pose significant risks to residents, as most houses are not built to modern seismic standards and homeowners do not purchase earthquake insurance. To quantify the financial risks, regional earthquake catastrophe models are developed using up-to-date hazard, exposure, and vulnerability information. The models consider a comprehensive list of seismic events and critical earthquake scenarios based on the latest geological data in the region. The results show that regional seismic losses could reach billions of dollars if a moderate-to-large earthquake occurs near urban centers such as Montreal and Ottawa. These loss estimates are useful for informing earthquake risk management strategies and policies.