Current and Potential Future Global Distribution of the Raisin Moth Cadra figulilella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under Two Different Climate Change Scenarios

Simple Summary The global trade system is contributing to the spread of invasive species, like the raisin moth (Cadra figulilella), causing significant damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The potential distribution of the raisin moth may become even more widespread due to climate change. We newly assessed the potential distribution of the raisin moth globally, under current and future climate scenarios using a climate dataset projected with 23 climate models under two emissions scenarios, and using both CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools. Our results indicated that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by 5.24 to 36.37% by the end of the century. Analysis of single predictor showed that excessive precipitation and a temperature range of 0-18 degrees C during the wettest quarter of the year may impact the species' establishment. The study highlights the need for using a combined modeling approach, such as CLIMEX and MaxEnt, in future research and the results could be used to inform international trade decisions and environmental risk assessments. Global trade facilitates the introduction of invasive species that can cause irreversible damage to agriculture and the environment, as well as stored food products. The raisin moth (Cadra figulilella) is an invasive pest that poses a significant threat to fruits and dried foods. Climate change may exacerbate this threat by expanding moth's distribution to new areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt niche modeling tools to assess the potential global distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate change scenarios. Our models projected that the area of suitable distribution for the raisin moth could increase by up to 36.37% by the end of this century under high emission scenario. We also found that excessive precipitation decreased the probability of raisin moth establishment and that the optimum temperature range for the species during the wettest quarter of the year was 0-18 degrees C. These findings highlight the need for future research to utilize a combined modeling approach to predict the distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate conditions more accurately. Our results could be used for environmental risk assessments, as well as to inform international trade decisions and negotiations on phytosanitary measures with regards to this invasive species.

Automated summary

The global trade system is facilitating the spread of the invasive species, raisin moth, causing significant damage to agriculture, the environment, and stored food products. This study assessed the potential distribution of the raisin moth under current and future climate scenarios using CLIMEX and MaxEnt modeling tools. The results showed that the suitable distribution area for the moth could increase by up to 36.37% by the end of this century. This study highlights the importance of using combined modeling approaches and provides valuable information for international trade decisions and environmental risk assessments.