Prognostic Factors of Long-Term Outcomes after Primary Chemo-Radiotherapy in Non-Metastatic Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: An International Bicentric Cohort

Anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) is a rare malignancy with a rising incidence associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The locally advanced disease is associated with a 30% rate of treatment failure after standard chemoradiotherapy (CRT). We aimed to elucidate the prognostic factors for ASCC after curative CRT. A retrospective multicenter study of 176 consecutive patients with ASCC having completed CRT treated between 2010 and 2017 at two centers was performed. Complete response (CR), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier estimates with log-rank tests. The hierarchical clustering on principal components (HCPC) method was employed in an unsupervised and multivariate approach. The CR rate was 70% and was predictive of DFS (p < 0.0001) and OS (p < 0.0001), where non-CR cases were associated with shorter DFS (HR = 16.5, 95% CI 8.19-33.21) and OS (HR = 8.42, 95% CI 3.77-18.81) in a univariate analysis. The median follow-up was 38 months, with a 3-year DFS of 71%. The prognostic factors for DFS were cT1-T2 (p = 0.0002), N0 (p = 0.035), HIV-positive (p = 0.047), HIV-HPV coinfection (p = 0.018), and well-differentiated tumors (p = 0.037). The three-year OS was 81.6%. Female sex (p = 0.05), cT1-T2 (p = 0.02) and well-differentiated tumors (p = 0.003) were associated with better OS. The unsupervised analysis demonstrated a clear segregation of patients in three clusters, identifying that poor prognosis clusters associated with shorter DFS (HR = 1.74 95% CI = 1.25-2.42, p = 0.0008) were enriched with the locally advanced disease, anal canal location, HIV-HPV coinfection, and non-CR. In conclusion, our results reinforce the prognostic value of T stage, N stage, sex, differentiation status, tumor location, and HIV-HPV coinfection in ASCC after CRT.

Automated summary

This retrospective study analyzed the clinical data of 176 patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma who completed chemoradiotherapy. Complete response was found to be predictive of disease-free survival and overall survival. Other prognostic factors included tumor stage, lymph node metastasis, sex, differentiation status, tumor location, and HIV-HPV coinfection. These results provide important insights for the treatment and prognosis evaluation of anal squamous cell carcinoma.