Relative contributions of internal variability and external forcing to the inter-decadal transition of climate patterns in East Asia

The annual precipitation in North China and South China shows a dipole pattern with a clear inter-decadal transition around the late 1970s. However, the relative contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this inter-decadal transition is still unclear. Here, we separate internal variability from the externally forced climate response through a set of dynamical downscaling simulations with lateral boundary conditions derived from reanalysis data and a large ensemble mean of the CMIP5 historical simulations. We find that internal variability accounts for about 65 and 55% of the inter-decadal transition of the annual precipitation in South and North China, respectively. By contrast, external forcing accounts for about 70% of the warming trend in eastern China over the second half of the 20th century. This study highlights the differential response of regional precipitation and air temperature to internal variability and external forcing over eastern China on an inter-decadal timescale.

Automated summary

This study separates internal variability from external forcing in the inter-decadal transition of annual precipitation in North and South China using dynamical downscaling simulations. The results show that internal variability accounts for 65% and 55% of the inter-decadal transition of annual precipitation in South and North China, respectively, while external forcing accounts for 70% of the warming trend in eastern China.