Giant oil discoveries and conflicts

This study investigates the effects of oil discoveries on conflict. We propose that the effects from oil discoveries may differ depending on types of conflicts, mainly interstate versus intrastate. Using a measure for oil discoveries for a global panel of countries between 1970 and 2012, we find a positive association between oil discoveries and both conflict types, controlling for other conflict determinants and unobserved heterogeneity. However, we observe that the effects on intrastate conflicts are evident within a year of discovering the oil, while the effects on interstate conflicts only become evident after five years of the discovery. We also find that within intrastate conflicts, the results are mainly driven by the effects on ethnic conflicts. The findings imply that there may be different mechanisms at play for interstate versus intrastate conflicts related to resource discoveries. For example, resource-induced inequality can aggravate already existing tensions between groups in society, which can result in internal conflict soon after discovering the resource. On the other hand, the feasibility of engaging in conflict with a neighbouring resource-rich country depends on fighting capacity and mobilising resources, which can delay interstate conflicts. Overall, we believe the results from this study will provide some further understanding to the dynamics involving natural resources and types of conflict.

Automated summary

This study examines the impact of oil discoveries on conflict, distinguishing between interstate and intrastate conflicts. Using data from 1970 to 2012 for countries worldwide, the study finds a positive relationship between oil discoveries and both types of conflict, after controlling for other determinants and unobserved factors. Moreover, the effects on intrastate conflicts are immediate, while the effects on interstate conflicts take around five years to manifest. The study highlights the role of ethnic conflicts in driving the relationship between oil discoveries and intrastate conflicts. It suggests that different mechanisms may be at play for different conflict types, involving factors such as resource-induced inequality and the feasibility of engaging in conflict with neighboring resource-rich countries.