Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Threatened Fishing Bat Myotis pilosus in China

Simple Summary: Myotis pilosus is a globally Vulnerable species. As the only known fishing bat in East Asia, M. pilosus is mainly distributed in China, and the protection of Chinese M. pilosus is of great significance for its persistence. Therefore, we collected species distribution data of M. pilosus from China and applied MaxEnt to assess its habitat suitability, recognize the important environmental variables, predict future distribution changes, and identify the potential future climate refugia. The results showed that temperature and precipitation, especially the minimum temperature, could be important environmental factors affecting the distribution of M. pilosus. The current suitable habitats of M. pilosus are located primarily in southwest and southeast China. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats were expected to expand and shift toward higher latitudes and altitudes, but the area of predicted suitable habitats that M. pilosus could disperse and successfully colonize will be reduced in 2050 and 2070. Thus, five regions were identified as potential future climate refugia and suggested to be under priority protection and long-term monitoring. This study provides helpful information on the possible distribution changes of M. pilosus under current and future climate scenarios, which is important for the conservation of this vulnerable piscivorous bat. Climate change and biodiversity loss are two severe challenges that the world is facing. Studying the distribution shifts of species in response to climate change could provide insights into long-term conservation and biodiversity maintenance. Myotis pilosus is the only known fishing bat in East Asia, whereas its population has been decreasing in recent years and it is listed as a Vulnerable species. To assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of M. pilosus, we obtained 33 M. pilosus occurrence records within China where they are mainly distributed, and extracted 30 environmental variables. MaxEnt was applied to assess the habitat suitability, recognize the important environmental variables, predict future distribution changes, and identify the potential future climate refugia. The prediction result based on eleven dominant environmental variables was excellent. The Jackknife test showed that the minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of wettest quarter, percent tree cover, and precipitation of driest month were the main factors affecting the distribution of M. pilosus. The current suitable areas were predicted to be mainly located in southwest and southeast China with a total area of about 160.54 x 10(4) km(2), accounting for 16.72% of China's land area. Based on the CCSM4, it was predicted that the future (2050 and 2070) suitable areas of M. pilosus will expand and shift to high latitudes and altitudes with global warming, but the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats will be small. Considering the dispersal capacity of M. pilosus, the area of colonized suitable habitats in 2050 and 2070 was predicted to be only ca. 94 x 10(4) km(2) and 155 x 10(4) km(2), respectively. The central and southern parts of Hainan, southern Guangdong, central Guizhou, and southern Beijing were identified as potential climate refugia and could be considered as priority conservation areas for M. pilosus. Thus, we suggest long-term monitoring of the priority conservation areas, especially the areas at high latitudes and altitudes. These results contribute to our knowledge of the possible spatial distribution pattern of M. pilosus under current and future climate scenarios, which is important for the population protection and habitat management of this special piscivorous bat species.

Automated summary

The study assessed the habitat suitability and predicted future distribution changes of Myotis pilosus in China, the only known fishing bat in East Asia. It identified temperature and precipitation as important environmental factors affecting its distribution. The suitable habitat was mainly located in southwest and southeast China, with future expansion and shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. However, the area of suitable habitats for colonization will be reduced in the future. Potential future climate refugia were identified, suggesting priority protection and long-term monitoring. This study provides valuable information for the conservation of this vulnerable piscivorous bat species.