Development of a Risk Prediction Model of Subsequent Bloodstream Infection After Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Isolated from Perianal Swabs in Hematological Patients

Purpose: Patients with hematological diseases are at high risk of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) infection, and CRE-related bloodstream infection (BSI) is associated with high mortality risk. Therefore, developing a predictive risk model for subsequent BSI in hematological patients with CRE isolated from perianal swabs could be used to guide preventive strategies. Methods: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study at a tertiary blood diseases hospital, including all hematological patients hospitalized from 10 October 2017 to 31 July 2021. We developed a predictive model using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated it using enhanced bootstrap resampling. Results: Of 421 included patients with CRE isolated from perianal swabs, BSI due to CRE occurred in 59. According to the multivariate logistic analysis, age (OR[odds ratio]=1.04, 95% CI[confidence interval]: 1.01-1.06, P=0.004), both meropenem and imipenem minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) of the isolate from perianal swabs>8ug/mL (OR=5.34, 95% CI: 2.63-11.5, P<0.001), gastrointestinal symptoms (OR=3.67, 95% CI: 1.82-7.58, P<0.001), valley absolute neutrophil count (109/L)>0.025 (OR=0.07, 95% CI: (0.02-0.19, P<0.001) and shaking chills at peak temperature (OR=6.94, 95% CI: (2.60-19.2, P<0.001) were independently associated with CRE BSI within 30 days and included in the prediction model. At a cut-off of prediction probability >= 21.5% the model exhibited a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 79.7%, 85.6%, 96.27% and 47.47%. The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were good on the derivation data (C-statistics=0.8898; Brier score=0.079) and enhanced bootstrapped validation dataset (adjusted C-statistics=0.881; adjusted Brier score=0.083). The risk prediction model is freely available as a mobile application at https://liujia1992.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/. Conclusion: A prediction model based on age, meropenem and imipenem MIC of isolate, gastrointestinal symptoms, valley absolute neutrophil count and shaking chills may be used to better inform interventions in hematological patients with CRE isolated from perianal swabs.

Automated summary

The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive risk model for bloodstream infection in hematological patients with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) isolated from perianal swabs. The results showed that age, meropenem and imipenem minimal inhibitory concentration, gastrointestinal symptoms, valley absolute neutrophil count, and shaking chills were independently associated with CRE bloodstream infection within 30 days. The predictive model exhibited good discrimination and calibration.