Future Increase in Aridity Drives Abrupt Biodiversity Loss Among Terrestrial Vertebrate Species

The planet is predicted to become drier because of accelerating global warming, increasing great challenges to the survival of terrestrial species. However, the understanding of when and where increasing aridity in the future will lead to abrupt biodiversity loss is still limited. Here, we predicted the spatiotemporal dynamics of future vertebrate biodiversity loss driven by increasing aridity at the assemblage scale under the scenario framework of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results show that, under the high-emissions scenario of SSP5-8.5, more than 24.19% of terrestrial assemblages are projected to have at least one vertebrate species exposed to unprecedented aridity conditions by 2100, leading to 55.29% of terrestrial vertebrate species experiencing local habitat loss. In addition, the mean magnitude of global exposure is expected to reach 17.47% by 2100. Within these assemblages, most species will be simultaneously exposed to unprecedented aridity conditions, with an average exposure abruptness of 78.00%, most of which will occur intensively after 2050. If we manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the SSP1-2.6 (SSP2-4.5) scenario, the magnitude of exposure can significantly decrease to 7.35% (10.56%), and the onset of exposure can be delayed by 43 (30) years, averaging approximately 30% (14%) of vertebrate species from local habitat loss. Our findings also highlight that the concurrent extremes of increasing aridity and rising temperature in Southeast Asia and Amazon rainforests may amplify exposure risks, which can motivate decision-makers to respond early and effectively to mitigate abrupt ecological disruption.

Automated summary

The planet is expected to become drier due to global warming, which poses significant challenges to terrestrial species. However, the understanding of the impact of future aridity on biodiversity is limited. This study predicts the future dynamics of vertebrate biodiversity loss driven by increasing aridity, showing that a large proportion of assemblages and species will be exposed to unprecedented aridity conditions by 2100. The findings emphasize the need for early and effective response to mitigate ecological disruption.