Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of age-structured malaria model with asymptomatic carrier and temperature variability

This paper presents an age-structured mathematical model for malaria transmission dynamics with asymptomatic carrier and temperature variability. The temperature variability function is fitted to the temperature data, and the malaria model is then fitted to the malaria cases and validated to check its suitability. Time-dependent controls were considered, including Long Lasting Insecticide Nets, treatment of symptomatic, screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers and spray of insecticides. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is used to derive the necessary conditions for optimal control of the disease. The numerical simulations of the optimal control problem reveal that the strategy involving the combination of all four controls is the most effective in reducing the number of infected individuals. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that treatment of symptomatic, screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers and insecticide spraying is the most cost-effective strategy to implement to control malaria transmission when available resources are limited.

Automated summary

This paper presents an age-structured mathematical model for malaria transmission dynamics with asymptomatic carrier and temperature variability, and explores the optimal control strategies. The numerical simulations reveal that the combination of Long Lasting Insecticide Nets, treatment of symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers, and spray of insecticides is the most effective in reducing the number of infected individuals. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that this combination strategy is the most cost-effective when resources are limited.