Migration risk of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) from North Africa to Southern Europe

With the development of globalization and agriculture trade, as well as its own strong migratory capacity, fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) (J.E. Smith) has invaded more than 70 countries, posing a serious threat to the production of major crops in these areas. FAW has now also been detected in Egypt in North Africa, putting Europe, which is separated from it only by the Mediterranean Sea, at high risk of invasion. Therefore, this study integrated multiple factors of insect source, host plant, and environment to provide a risk analysis of the potential trajectories and time periods of migration of FAW into Europe in 2016 similar to 2022. First, the CLIMEX model was used to predict the annual and seasonal suitable distribution of FAW. The HYSPLIT numerical trajectory model was then used to simulate the possibility of the FAW invasion of Europe through wind-driven dispersal. The results showed that the risk of FAW invasion between years was highly consistent (P<0.001). Coastal areas were most suitable for the expansion of the FAW, and Spain and Italy had the highest risk of invasion, with 39.08% and 32.20% of effective landing points respectively. Dynamic migration prediction based on spatio-temporal data can enable early warning of FAW, which is important for joint multinational pest management and crop protection.

Automated summary

With the globalization and agriculture trade development, fall armyworm (FAW) has invaded over 70 countries, posing a serious threat to major crop production. The study used multiple factors to analyze the risk of FAW migration to Europe from 2016 to 2022, and suggested that coastal areas, particularly Spain and Italy, had a high risk of invasion. Early warning based on spatio-temporal data is crucial for multinational pest management and crop protection.