Meta-analysis of the impact of future climate change on the area of woody plant habitats in China

Climate change poses a very serious threat to woody plants, and it is important to study its impact on the distribution dynamics of woody plants in China. However, there are no comprehensive quantitative studies on which factors influence the changes in the area of woody plant habitats in China under climate change. In this meta-analysis, we investigated the future suitable habitat area changes of 114 woody plant species in 85 studies based on MaxEnt model predictions to summarize the future climate change impacts on woody plant habitat area changes in China. It was found that climate change will result in a 3.66% increase in the overall woody plant suitable areas and a 31.33% decrease in the highly suitable areas in China. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter is the most important climatic factor, and greenhouse gas concentrations were inversely related to the area of future woody plant suitable areas. Meanwhile, shrubs are more climate-responsive than trees, drought-tolerant plants (e.g., Dalbergia, Cupressus, and Xanthoceras) and plants that can adapt quickly (e.g., Camellia, Cassia, and Fokienia) and their appearance will increase in the future. Old World temperate, Trop. Asia and Trop. Amer. disjuncted, and the Sino-Himalaya Floristic region are more vulnerable. Quantitative analysis of the possible risks to future climate change in areas suitable for woody plants in China is important for global woody plant diversity conservation.

Automated summary

Climate change poses a serious threat to woody plants in China, but there are few comprehensive quantitative studies on the factors affecting changes in woody plant habitats under climate change. This meta-analysis examines the future impact of climate change on woody plant habitat area changes in China and finds a 3.66% increase in overall suitable areas and a 31.33% decrease in highly suitable areas. The coldest quarter temperature is the most important climatic factor, and greenhouse gas concentrations are inversely related to future suitable habitat areas. Shrubs are more responsive to climate change than trees, and certain drought-tolerant and quick-adapting plants will increase in the future. The Old World temperate, Trop. Asia and Trop. Amer. disjuncted, and the Sino-Himalaya Floristic region are more vulnerable. Quantitative analysis of potential risks for woody plant habitats in China is crucial for global woody plant diversity conservation.