VO2max prediction based on submaximal cardiorespiratory relationships and body composition in male runners and cyclists: a population study

Background: Oxygen uptake (VO2) is one of the most important measures of fitness and critical vital sign. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a valuable method of assessing fitness in sport and clinical settings. There is a lack of large studies on athletic populations to predict VO2max using somatic or submaximal CPET variables. Thus, this study aimed to: (1) derive prediction models for maximal VO2 (VO2max) based on submaximal exercise variables at anaerobic threshold (AT) or respiratory compensation point (RCP) or only somatic and (2) internally validate provided equations. Methods: Four thousand four hundred twenty-four male endurance athletes (EA) underwent maximal symptom-limited CPET on a treadmill (n=3330) or cycle ergometer (n=1094). The cohort was randomly divided between: variables selection (n(runners) = 1998; n(cyclist) = 656), model building (n(runners) = 666; n(cyclist) = 219), and validation (n(runners) = 666; n(cyclist) = 219). Random forest was used to select the most significant variables. Models were derived and internally validated with multiple linear regression. Results: Runners were 36.24 +/- 8.45 years; BMI = 23.94 +/- 2.43 kg.m(-2); VO2max=53.81 +/- 6.67 mL.min(-1).kg(-1). Cyclists were 37.33 +/- 9.13 years; BMI = 24.34 +/- 2.63 kg.m(-2); VO2max=51.74 +/- 7.99 mL.min(-1).kg(-1). VO2 at AT and RCP were the most contributing variables to exercise equations. Body mass and body fat had the highest impact on the somatic equation. Model performance for VO2max based on variables at AT was R-2=0.81, at RCP was R-2=0.91, at AT and RCP was R-2=0.91 and for somatic-only was R-2=0.43. Conclusions: Derived prediction models were highly accurate and fairly replicable. Formulae allow for precise estimation of VO2max based on submaximal exercise performance or somatic variables. Presented models are applicable for sport and clinical settling. They are a valuable supplementary method for fitness practitioners to adjust individualised training recommendations.

Automated summary

This study aimed to develop prediction models for VO2max based on submaximal exercise variables or somatic variables in endurance athletes. The study found that VO2 at anaerobic threshold and respiratory compensation point were the most important variables in the exercise equations, while body weight and body fat had the highest impact on the somatic equation. The derived models were accurate and replicable, providing valuable tools for estimating VO2max in sport and clinical settings.