Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

Exploring the future trends of land use/land cover (LULC) changes is significant for the sustainable development of a region. The simulation and prediction of LULC in a large-scale basin in an arid zone can help the future land management planning and rational allocation of resources in this ecologically fragile region. Using the whole Ili-Balkhash Basin as the study area, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and a combination of PLUS and Markov predictions (PLUS-Markov) were used to simulate and predict land use in 2020 based on the assessment of the accuracy of LULC classification in the global dataset. The accuracy of simulations and predictions using the model were measured for LULC data covering different time periods. Model settings with better simulation results were selected for simulating and predicting possible future land use conditions in the basin. The future predictions for 2025 and 2030, which are based on historical land change characteristics, indicate that the overall future spatial pattern of LULC in the basin remains relatively stable in general without the influence of other external factors. Over the time scale of the future five years, the expansion of croplands and barren areas in the basin primarily stems from the loss of grasslands. Approximately 48% of the converted grassland areas are transformed into croplands, while around 40% are converted into barren areas. In the longer time scale of the future decade, the conversion of grasslands to croplands in the basin is also evident. However, the expansion phenomenon of urban and built-up lands at the expense of croplands is more significant, with approximately 774.2 km(2) of croplands developing into urban and built-up lands. This work provides an effective new approach for simulating and predicting LULC in data-deficient basins at a large scale in arid regions, thereby establishing a foundation for future research on the impact of human activities on basin hydrology and related studies.

Automated summary

Exploring the future trends of LULC changes is crucial for sustainable development. Simulation and prediction of LULC in an arid basin can aid land management planning and resource allocation in this fragile region. Using the Ili-Balkhash Basin as a case study, the PLUS and PLUS-Markov models were used to simulate and predict land use based on LULC classification accuracy. Results show a relatively stable spatial pattern of LULC, with croplands and barren areas expanding at the expense of grasslands in the short term. Urban and built-up areas also expand at the cost of croplands in the long term. This study provides a useful approach for simulating and predicting LULC in data-deficient basins and contributes to understanding the impact of human activities on hydrology.