The trilemma among CO2 emissions, energy use, and economic growth in Russia

This paper examines the relationship among CO2 emissions, energy use, and GDP in Russia using annual data ranging from 1990 to 2020. We first conduct time-series analyses (stationarity, structural breaks, cointegration, and causality tests). Then, we performed some Machine Learning experiments as robustness checks. Both approaches underline a bidirectional causal flow between energy use and CO2 emissions; a unidirectional link running from CO2 emissions to real GDP; and the predominance of the neutrality hypothesis for energy use-GDP nexus. Therefore, energy conservation measures should not adversely affect the economic growth path of the country. In the current geopolitical scenario, relevant policy implications may be derived.

Automated summary

This paper investigates the relationship between CO2 emissions, energy use, and GDP in Russia from 1990 to 2020. The study employs time-series analysis and machine learning experiments to examine the causal flows and hypotheses. The findings suggest a bidirectional causality between energy use and CO2 emissions, a unidirectional link from CO2 emissions to real GDP, and the predominance of the neutrality hypothesis between energy use and GDP. The study highlights the importance of energy conservation measures in sustaining economic growth without adversely affecting the environment.