Multi-Year Controls on Groundwater Storage in Seasonally Snow-Covered Headwater Catchments

Seasonally snow-covered catchments in the western United States supply water to growing populations as both annual snowmelt-driven streamflow and multi-year groundwater recharge. Although interannual variability in streamflow is driven largely by precipitation, runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation) in individual catchments varies by 50% or more. Recent work suggests that interannual variability in groundwater storage, inferred from winter baseflow, is a primary control on runoff efficiency, highlighting a need to quantify both the time scales on which groundwater storage varies and the hydro-climatic drivers of storage. Using over a century of daily stream discharge data from 10 seasonally snow-covered catchments in northern Utah, we find that temporal variability in winter baseflow, an index of groundwater storage, measured from mean daily January discharge, exhibits a 2-5- and 12-15-year periodicity, driven by regional precipitation patterns and snowmelt dynamics. Specifically, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling using antecedent hydro-climatic variables demonstrates that winter baseflow (groundwater storage) was positively related to 3-4 years of antecedent annual precipitation, negatively related to the previous year's mean annual temperature, and positively related to 1-4 antecedent years of snowmelt rate and duration. Because antecedent baseflow (groundwater storage) is strongly related to runoff efficiency, these results suggest that more frequent and longer droughts in a future climate will reduce surface water supplies faster than otherwise expected. More broadly, these results highlight the importance of including the influence of antecedent climate on groundwater storage when modeling and managing water supplies from seasonally snow-covered catchments.

Automated summary

Seasonally snow-covered catchments in the western United States provide water supply to growing populations through annual snowmelt-driven streamflow and multi-year groundwater recharge. The variability in streamflow is largely influenced by precipitation, but the efficiency of runoff varies greatly among catchments. This study finds that the variability in winter baseflow, an indicator of groundwater storage, shows periodicity of 2-5 and 12-15 years, driven by regional precipitation patterns and snowmelt dynamics. These results highlight the need to consider the influence of antecedent climate on groundwater storage when managing water supplies from snow-covered catchments.