Trajectories of Lower Extremity Physical Performance: Effects on Fractures and Mortality in Older Women

Background: Prior studies have only considered one measurement of physical performance in its relationship to fractures and mortality. A single measurement is susceptible to large within-person changes over time, and thus, may not capture the true association between physical performance and the outcomes of interest. Methods: Using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures, we followed 7,015 women enrolled prior to age 80 years who had outcome information beyond this age. Trajectories of walking speed (m/s) and chair stand speed (stands/s) were estimated up to the last visit prior to age 80 years using mixed-effects linear regression. Physical performance at age 80 (PF_age80) was assessed at the last visit prior to age 80 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression and multivariate models adjusted for all other covariates. Results: Greatest walking speed decline and chair stand speed decline were both associated with higher risk of hip fracture (HR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.58 and HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.54, respectively), but not nonspine fractures. Greatest walking speed decline and chair stand speed decline were both associated with a significant 29% (95% CI: 17-42%) and 27% (95% CI: 15-39%) increased risk of mortality, respectively. Conclusions: Greatest declines in walking speed and chair stand speed were both associated with an increased risk of hip fracture and mortality independent of PF_age80 and other important confounders. Both physical performance change and the single physical performance measurement should be considered in the etiology of hip fracture and mortality.