QPSO-AHES-RC: a hybrid learning model for short-term traffic flow prediction

Accurate assessment of road conditions can effectively alleviate traffic congestion and guide people's travel plans, traffic control decisions of transportation departments, and formulation of traffic-related laws and regulations. This paper proposes a quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) and adaptive hybrid exponential smoothing with residual correction (AHES-RC) for the nonlinearity and randomness of traffic flow. In the proposed algorithm, the single-double-exponential smoothing method is mixed with adaptive weights to form AHES, a new method of mixing weights according to real-time traffic trend changes. After the residual correction of AHES is calculated by the extreme learning machine algorithm, the parameters of AHES-RC are optimized using QPSO to improve the prediction accuracy further. This paper comprehensively compares the QPSO-AHES-RC algorithm with other benchmark models through testing on 26 real-world data sets. The results show that the proposed algorithm can adaptive forecasting under various traffic conditions, yielding the best forecasting performance in terms of various forecast error metrics. Compared with advanced machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost and CatBoost, the mean RMSE and mean MAPE have been improved by over 20% on average. In addition, it is revealed that the real-time dynamic capture of traffic flow can effectively improve prediction accuracy.

Automated summary

Accurate assessment of road conditions can effectively alleviate traffic congestion and guide people's travel plans, traffic control decisions of transportation departments, and formulation of traffic-related laws and regulations.