Machine learning for prediction of daily sea surface dimethylsulfide concentration and emission flux over the North Atlantic Ocean (1998-2021)

As the most ubiquitous natural source of sulfur in the atmosphere, dimethylsulfide (DMS) promotes aerosol formation in marine environments, impacting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation, eventually influencing regional and global climate. In this study, we propose a machine learning predictive algorithm based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to model the distribution of daily DMS concentrations in the North Atlantic waters over 24 years (1998-2021) at 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees spatial resolution. The model was built using DMS observations from cruises, combined with satellitederived oceanographic data and Copernicus-modelled data. Further comparison was made with the previously employed machine learning methods (i.e., artificial neural network and random forest regression) and the existing empirical DMS algorithms. The proposed GPR outperforms the other methods for predicting DMS, displaying the highest coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.71 and the least root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.21. Notably, DMS regional patterns are associated with the spatial distribution of phytoplankton biomass and the thickness of the ocean mixed layer, displaying high DMS concentrations above 50 degrees N from June to August. The amplitude, onset, and duration of the DMS annual cycle vary significantly across different regions, as revealed by the k-means++ clustering. Based on the GPR model output, the sea-to-air flux in the North Atlantic from March to September is estimated to be 3.04 Tg S, roughly 44 % lower than the estimates based on extrapolations of in-situ data. The present study demonstrates the effectiveness of a novel method for estimating seawater DMS surface concentration at unprecedented space and time resolutions. As a result, we are able to capture high-frequency spatial and temporal patterns in DMS variability. Better predictions of DMS concentration and derived sea-to-air flux will improve the modeling of biogenic sulfur aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere and reduce aerosol-cloud interaction uncertainties in climate models.

Automated summary

In this study, a machine learning predictive algorithm based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) was proposed to model the distribution of daily dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations in the North Atlantic waters over 24 years. The GPR method outperformed other machine learning methods and existing empirical algorithms, achieving an R2 value of 0.71 and an RMSE of 0.21 for DMS prediction. The spatial distribution of phytoplankton biomass and the thickness of the ocean mixed layer were found to be associated with DMS regional patterns.