Integrating polygenic and clinical risks to improve stroke risk stratification in prospective Chinese cohorts

The utility of the polygenic risk score (PRS) to identify individuals at higher risk of stroke beyond clinical risk remains unclear, and we clarified this using Chinese population-based prospective cohorts. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the 10-year risk, and Fine and Gray's models were used for hazard ratios (HRs), their 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and the lifetime risk according to PRS and clinical risk categories. A total of 41,006 individuals aged 30-75 years with a mean follow-up of 9.0 years were included. Comparing the top versus bottom 5% of the PRS, the HR was 3.01 (95%CI 2.03-4.45) in the total population, and similar findings were observed within clinical risk strata. Marked gradients in the 10-year and lifetime risk across PRS categories were also found within clinical risk categories. Notably, among individuals with intermediate clinical risk, the 10-year risk for those in the top 5% of the PRS (7.3%, 95%CI 7.1%-7.5%) reached the threshold of high clinical risk (> 7.0%) for initiating preventive treatment, and this effect of the PRS on refining risk stratification was evident for ischemic stroke. Even among those in the top 10% and 20% of the PRS, the 10-year risk would also exceed this level when aged > 50 and > 60 years, respectively. Overall, the combination of the PRS with the clinical risk score improved the risk stratification within clinical risk strata and distinguished actual high-risk individuals with intermediate clinical risk.

Automated summary

The utility of polygenic risk score (PRS) in identifying individuals at higher risk of stroke independent of clinical risk has been investigated using Chinese population-based prospective cohorts. The study found that PRS, when combined with clinical risk score, improved risk stratification and identified high-risk individuals with intermediate clinical risk. The 10-year risk of stroke was significantly higher in individuals in the top 5% of PRS, even within different clinical risk categories. This suggests that PRS can effectively refine risk stratification for ischemic stroke.