☆ 4.7 Review

Heat Waves: Physical Understanding and Scientific Challenges

REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS (2023)

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Review Environmental Sciences

Prediction and projection of heatwaves

Daniela I. V. Domeisen et al.

Summary: Heatwaves pose a major threat to human health and ecosystems, and predicting them is crucial for preparedness. Current capabilities allow for skillful prediction of heatwaves on daily to weekly timescales, but become challenging beyond a few weeks. However, tendencies for above-average temperatures can still be estimated. Future projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent, persistent, and intense worldwide, with amplified trends in mid-latitudes due to soil drying. There will also be an increased occurrence of humid heatwaves, particularly in southern Asia. Improving heatwave prediction and projection requires a better understanding of relevant drivers and their model representation.

NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2023)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Using Explainable Machine Learning Forecasts to Discover Subseasonal Drivers of High Summer Temperatures in Western and Central Europe

Chiem Van Straaten et al.

Summary: This study examines the contribution of nine potential drivers on eight time scales to the subseasonal predictability of high summer temperatures in western and central Europe. It demonstrates that complex statistical models, when made explainable, can complement research with numerical weather prediction models for better future forecasts.

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Ethics of Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Change Science: A Critique

Lennart Olsson et al.

Summary: The question of whether a single extreme climate event can be attributed to human induced climate change has sparked research and discussions. The probabilistic event attribution approach is advocated for advancing climate policies, while critics raise concerns about potential misguided policies. This study presents ethical predicaments rooted in epistemic choices of single event attribution, highlighting the sensitivity of probabilistic event attribution to these predicaments and the need for a causality-driven approach.

EARTHS FUTURE (2022)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Soil drought can mitigate deadly heat stress thanks to a reduction of air humidity

Hendrik Wouters et al.

Summary: Global warming has led to an increase in the number and severity of deadly heatwaves. Recent heatwaves have been accompanied by soil droughts that intensify air temperature but decrease air humidity. Despite the increase in temperature, soil droughts actually result in a mild reduction in the lethality of heatwaves.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Seasonal forecasts of Eurasian summer heat wave frequency

Rui Zhi Zhang et al.

Summary: This study identified a continental-scale pattern for summer heat wave frequency over the Eurasian continent and utilized two machine learning models to forecast the frequency. The machine learning models demonstrated better skill in predicting high heat wave frequency regions compared to a traditional linear regression model. This suggests that machine learning models may serve as a useful tool for forecasting summer heat wave events.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events Relevant Case Studies across the Globe

Daniela I. Domeisen et al.

Summary: This article highlights the potential for predicting extreme events such as heatwaves, cold spells, and tropical cyclones on probabilistic time scales of several weeks, with precipitation extremes being the least predictable among the considered case studies.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Amplified Upward Trend of the Joint Occurrences of Heat and Ozone Extremes in China over 2013-20

Xiang Xiao et al.

Summary: This study investigates the cooccurrences of heat and air pollution extremes in China. The results show a significant increase in the frequency of joint exceedances of wet-bulb temperature (w) and O-3, mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River delta. Moreover, the rate of joint exceedance is higher than the rate of T-w and O-3 themselves.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Explaining Extreme Events of 2020 from a Climate Perspective

Stephanie C. Herring et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Decoupling between ecosystem photosynthesis and transpiration: a last resort against overheating

Christopher Krich et al.

Summary: In the face of more frequent extreme high temperatures in the future, research has found evidence of decoupling between photosynthesis and transpiration, which can prevent lethal leaf temperatures. The occurrence of decoupling depends on ecosystem characteristics and canopy energy balance. However, the occurrence of this decoupling phenomenon is still limited. Causal-inference approaches are valuable for analyzing complex physiological processes.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2022)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

The 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Wave and Associated Blocking: Meteorology and the Role of an Upstream Cyclone as a Diabatic Source of Wave Activity

Emily Neal et al.

Summary: The study investigates the meteorological and dynamical conditions that led to extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest from late June to early July 2021. It finds that an upper-level atmospheric blocking and surface cyclogenesis off the coast of Alaska contributed to the extreme heat event. The study also highlights the critical role of a localized non-diabatic source in the formation and strength of the blocking.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2022)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves

Michael G. Jacox et al.

Summary: Research shows that the onset, intensity, and duration of marine heatwaves are often predictable, with skillful forecasts possible from 1 to 12 months in advance depending on region, season, and climate mode status. Setting decision thresholds based on the probability of MHW occurrence can promote climate resilience in global marine ecosystems.

NATURE (2022)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Drought self-propagation in drylands due to land-atmosphere feedbacks

Dominik L. Schumacher et al.

Summary: Dryland droughts are prone to self-propagation due to enhanced soil water stress, impacting local and downstream precipitation. This mechanism could exacerbate future droughts with projected widespread reductions in water availability.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2022)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The influence of soil dry-out on the record-breaking hot 2013/2014 summer in Southeast Brazil

J. L. Geirinhas et al.

Summary: The summer of 2013/2014 in Southeast Brazil was characterized by an unprecedented combination of heat and dry conditions, leading to significant socio-economic impacts. This study provides a detailed analysis of the season, focusing on the role of land-atmosphere interactions in temperature escalation. It was found that the strong coupling between soil moisture and temperature resulted in record-breaking temperatures, and played a key role in triggering a prolonged heatwave.

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS (2022)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally

Vikki Thompson et al.

Summary: In June 2021, a unprecedented heat wave occurred in western North America, far exceeding the previously observed temperature range. By using a novel assessment method, it is found that this heat wave was extremely intense, exceeding four standard deviations. Only five more extreme heat waves have been recorded globally since 1960. It is also discovered that the statistical distribution of heat extremes increases over time, indicating a shift in the distribution mean due to climate change.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

Christopher J. White et al.

Summary: The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale is at the forefront of forecasting science, providing enhanced application-focused capabilities. However, a lack of evidence and awareness limits the wider uptake of S2S forecasts. This study summarizes relevant applications of S2S forecasts and highlights the challenges of incorporating them into decision-making operations.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The Turning Point of the Aerosol Era

Susanne E. Bauer et al.

Summary: During the CMIP6 historical period, aerosols have been the largest negative forcing and played a crucial role in counterbalancing the warming effect of greenhouse gases. However, aerosol forcing has been decreasing globally since the beginning of the 21st century, augmenting global warming.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Drivers and Mechanisms of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

D. L. Schumacher et al.

Summary: In late June 2021, a heatwave with unusually high temperatures occurred in western North America, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. The study finds that the physical drivers of this event are the anticyclonic circulation aloft, which converts potential energy into sensible heat, and the establishment of deep atmospheric boundary layers facilitated by mountainous terrain and dry soils. Anomalous soil moisture also contributes to the temperature rise. The research suggests that similar large-scale atmospheric circulation driven by enhanced thermodynamic drivers could result in even more extreme temperatures, particularly in a warmer climate.

EARTHS FUTURE (2022)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia

Efi Rousi et al.

Summary: Persistent heat extremes in Europe have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, and the heatwave trends in Europe have been accelerating compared to other regions. The increase in the persistence of double jet events over Eurasia is found to be a major driver of this acceleration. These findings have important implications for risk management and potential adaptation strategies.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2022)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Central tropical Pacific convection drives extreme high temperatures and surface melt on the Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula

Kyle R. Clem et al.

Summary: Extreme summertime surface melt and record-high temperature events on the eastern Antarctic Peninsula and Larsen C Ice Shelf are triggered by deep convection in the central tropical Pacific, which transports warm and moist air to the area, causing strong foehn warming and surface melt. Variability in central tropical Pacific convection is a key driver of surface mass balance and extreme high temperatures in the area.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2022)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Heat Extremes Driven by Amplification of Phase-Locked Circumglobal Waves Forced by Topography in an Idealized Atmospheric Model

B. Jimenez-Esteve et al.

Summary: Research shows that amplified Rossby waves and preferred longitudinal locations are associated with concurrent heatwaves. Dry atmospheric dynamics and topography play a critical role in causing synchronous heatwaves.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

An anomalous warm-season trans-Pacific atmospheric river linked to the 2021 western North America heatwave

Ruping Mo et al.

Summary: Based on analyses of observation-based data and numerical weather prediction model output, this study reveals that a warm-season atmospheric river moved from Southeast Asia across the North Pacific in June 2021, contributing heat and moisture to a heatwave event in western North America. The movement of this system resulted in substantial spillover of moisture and sensible heat, forming a positive feedback mechanism that potentially led to the expansion of the heatwave event.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula

Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero et al.

Summary: In February 2020, the Antarctic Peninsula experienced anomalously warm temperatures and one of the most intense heatwaves ever recorded, with the intensity of the heatwave increasing by approximately 25% compared to the past, largely due to the long-term warming of the Antarctic Peninsula.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Sixfold Increase in Historical Northern Hemisphere Concurrent Large Heatwaves Driven by Warming and Changing Atmospheric Circulations

Cassandra D. W. Rogers et al.

Summary: The study reveals a significant increase in concurrent heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere mid- to high latitudes from 1979 to 2019. Changes in specific large-scale circulation patterns are found to be associated with the increased risk of concurrent heatwaves in different regions.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Joint occurrence of heatwaves and ozone pollution and increased health risks in Beijing, China: role of synoptic weather pattern and urbanization

Lian Zong et al.

Summary: Heatwaves paired with higher ozone concentration pose a serious threat to human health. This study in Beijing identified three synoptic weather patterns that contribute to compound heatwaves and ozone pollution events. These patterns are characterized by sinking air motion, low boundary layer height, and high temperatures. The synergy of heatwaves and ozone pollution increased the mortality risk from all non-accidental causes. Urbanization also played a role in increasing the risk of heatwaves and ozone pollution in urban areas.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Aerosol radiative impact during the summer 2019 heatwave produced partly by an inter-continental Saharan dust outbreak - Part 2: Long-wave and net dust direct radiative effect

Michael Sicard et al.

Summary: This paper estimates the long-wave and net dust direct radiative effect during a dust episode paired with a mega-heatwave in June 2019. The analysis reveals that the coarse-mode dust has a significant impact on the total net dust radiative effect, exceeding the short-wave component in the middle of the episode.

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS (2022)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Deep Learning-Based Extreme Heatwave Forecast

Valerian Jacques-Dumas et al.

Summary: The study of extreme heat waves is important due to their impact on society and biodiversity. This research explores the use of deep learning models to forecast the occurrence of long-lasting extreme heat waves and achieves significant predictive performance.

FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Precipitation response to extreme soil moisture conditions over the Mediterranean

Constantin Ardilouze et al.

Summary: There is a close link between soil moisture and precipitation, especially in the Mediterranean. This study finds that dry soils lead to a reduction of precipitation in the early summer, while wet soils tend to favor persistent precipitation in several sub-regions.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2022)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas

Wu Xinying et al.

Summary: Under global warming, the frequency of dry and hot events is increasing, leading to greater stress on natural and human systems. This study shows a significant increase in the spatial extent of compound dry and hot events since the 1980s, with projections indicating further expansion in the future. Efforts are needed to cope with potential impacts from the increasing areas affected by compound dry and hot events.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Absorbing aerosols and high-temperature extremes in India: A general circulation modelling study

Arpita Mondal et al.

Summary: Heat waves in India during the pre-monsoon months have significant impacts on human health, productivity, and mortality. Research shows that this phenomenon is related to the presence of absorbing aerosols. The simulations demonstrate that in north-central India, high-temperature extremes coincide with positive anomalies of BC and dust aerosol optical depths.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Is interactive air sea coupling relevant for simulating the future climate of Europe?

M. Groeger et al.

Summary: Research indicates that using coupled atmosphere-ocean models can lead to different future climate change solutions compared to standalone atmosphere models. Coupling effects in marine areas may influence the response to climate change and impact planning and decision-making for marine-related activities.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The 2020 Siberian heat wave

James E. Overland et al.

Summary: In 2020, Siberia experienced an extreme heat wave with anomalies in monthly temperatures, largely due to the stratospheric polar vortex and tropospheric jet stream. The Arctic Oscillation set extreme positive records, contributing to the persistent heat wave. High tropospheric geopotential heights over Asia influenced temperatures in May and June.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Summer Weather Persistence Linked to Projected Arctic Warming

Kai Kornhuber et al.

Summary: The study reveals that when the equator-to-pole temperature difference is weaker, the propagation speed of summer weather systems slows down, leading to the possibility of hotter summer weather becoming more persistent, which could increase the risk of extreme heat waves.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Characterizing the Relationship between Temperature and Soil Moisture Extremes and Their Role in the Exacerbation of Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

David O. Benson et al.

Summary: Increased heat-wave frequency in the United States necessitates improved predictability of heat-wave events. A study identifies a hypersensitive regime transition in atmospheric temperature to declining soil moisture, with sensible heat flux playing a key role in driving increased temperature sensitivity. Accurate estimation of soil moisture breakpoints can enhance heat-wave prediction.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Aerosol-modulated heat stress in the present and future climate of India

Sagnik Dey et al.

Summary: Heat stress is a leading natural cause of mortality in India, and aerosols play a role in modulating this stress by masking it but also increasing it when aerosol emissions decrease. Further understanding of aerosol radiative feedback is necessary for accurate heat stress projections in India and other regions with high aerosol loading.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Global multi-model projections of local urban climates

Lei Zhao et al.

Summary: Under a high-emissions scenario, cities in the United States, Middle East, northern Central Asia, northeastern China, and inland South America and Africa are estimated to experience substantial warming of more than 4 K by the end of the century. Our findings highlight the critical need for global multi-model projections of local urban climates to support climate-sensitive development and reduce urban heat stress through green infrastructure intervention.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Ensemble Methods for Neural Network-Based Weather Forecasts

Sebastian Scher et al.

Summary: The research aims to transform a deterministic neural network weather forecasting system into an ensemble forecasting system by testing four different methods to generate ensembles. The results show that the retraining method yields the highest improvement, but the skill of the neural network forecasts is systematically lower than that of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Erika Coppola et al.

Summary: This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model projections for Europe and finds different temperature and precipitation change trends in different regions, with noticeable consistency among different model ensembles.

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability

Kiswendsida H. Guigma et al.

Summary: The study found that the ECMWF ENS extended-range forecasting system can accurately predict Sahelian heatwaves up to lead-week 2-3. As lead-time increases, nighttime heatwaves are more predictable than daytime heatwaves. Prediction skill is better during the active phases of tropical modes.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Identifying key driving mechanisms of heat waves in central Chile

Alan Demortier et al.

Summary: This study investigates the main drivers of heat wave events in central Chile using state-of-the-art reanalysis data and observations, revealing that temperature extremes and frequency of heat waves are better captured at inland stations compared to coastal stations. The study also highlights the importance of synoptic- and large-scale features, as well as sub-synoptic processes such as coastal lows, in shaping the characteristics of heat wave events.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh et al.

Summary: In recent years, there has been a growing interest in extreme event attribution, driven by public interest and practical applications in decision-making and raising awareness of climate change impacts. Researchers have developed a scientifically rigorous methodology to study the influence of climate change on extreme events, which has been practiced globally and has provided valuable lessons. Through this experience, researchers highlight the importance of careful choices in each step of the attribution process, common problems that can occur, and the need for robust conclusions from the analysis.

CLIMATIC CHANGE (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe

Teresa Armada Bras et al.

Summary: The study shows that historical extreme weather disasters in Europe, such as droughts and heatwaves, have led to reduced cereal yields. Floods have a marginal impact on crop production. Over the past 50 years, the severity of heatwaves and droughts on European crop production has roughly tripled.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

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Article Construction & Building Technology

A vast increase in heat exposure in the 21st century is driven by global warming and urban population growth

Tamir Klein et al.

Summary: Climate change and population growth are projected to significantly increase the population exposed to extreme heat, particularly in warm cities in regions like Africa, India, and the Middle East. Policy interventions have the potential to reduce the level of exposure increase by up to 70%.

SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate

Alexander Robinson et al.

Summary: Over the past decade, global warming of 0.25 degrees Celsius has led to the emergence of heat extremes and continued increases in record rainfall extremes worldwide. Tropical regions, which typically contributed least to anthropogenic climate change, continue to experience the strongest increase in extremes.

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection

Jonathan D. Beverley et al.

Summary: The circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) is an important mode of circulation variability, with influences across the northern hemisphere. The study found that errors over northwest Europe have a greater impact on inhibiting the model skill in representing the CGT and the northern hemisphere circulation. The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) forces an extratropical Rossby wave train with upper tropospheric anticyclonic anomalies over east Asia, the North Pacific and North America, but this response does not extend to Europe and occurs largely through westward-propagating Rossby waves.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Rare Event Algorithm Study of Extreme Warm Summers and Heatwaves Over Europe

F. Ragone et al.

Summary: The lack of statistics in climate models hinders the analysis of extreme events, as direct sampling is not feasible due to computational costs. By using rare event algorithms, we can improve the statistics of extreme events in state-of-the-art climate models. Our study on extreme warm summers and heatwaves over France and Scandinavia shows that extreme warm summers are associated with specific hemispheric teleconnection patterns, with the most extreme summers linked to rare subseasonal heatwaves.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A New Combined Detection Algorithm for Blocking and Subtropical Ridges

Pedro M. Sousa et al.

Summary: The study proposes a conceptual model for the life cycle of high pressure systems, with a focus on the diversity of blocking patterns. A detection scheme and spatiotemporal tracking algorithm are used to classify different types of high pressure events and reveal increasing frequencies of low-latitude systems with complex spatial patterns.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Mean Temperature Using Observational, Reanalysis, and Satellite Data

Maria Pyrina et al.

Summary: The study tested the statistical prediction model for European summer temperature, showing that using soil moisture and sea surface temperature data can achieve higher prediction accuracy, particularly in central and eastern Europe. This can result in better prediction skill compared to dynamical models.

WEATHER AND FORECASTING (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes

E. M. Fischer et al.

Summary: With the impact of global warming, the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events are constantly increasing, and this change mainly depends on the rate of warming rather than the level.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Sub-Seasonal Forecasting With a Large Ensemble of Deep-Learning Weather Prediction Models

Jonathan A. Weyn et al.

Summary: The study presents an ensemble prediction system using a computationally efficient Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model to recursively predict key atmospheric variables with good skill globally. The model performs well in simulating mid-latitude weather systems and generating tropical cyclones, showing decent predictive capabilities.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2021)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Dominant role of vertical air flows in the unprecedented warming on the Antarctic Peninsula in February 2020

Min Xu et al.

Summary: By studying the extreme temperature event on the Antarctic Peninsula in 2020, it was found that the formation mechanism of this event was due to a ridge of high pressure and a blocking high pressure that brought warm and moist air from the Pacific Ocean to the Antarctic Peninsula, with foehn warming playing a key role in vertical air flow.

COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT (2021)

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Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline

Linda van Garderen et al.

Summary: In the attribution of extreme weather events, enforcing dynamical conditions through global spectral nudging towards reanalysis data of large-scale vorticity and divergence allows the lower atmosphere to respond freely. Results show that conditional attribution can have a high signal-to-noise ratio on daily timescales and at local spatial scales.

NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES (2021)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Connection between Sea Surface Anomalies and Atmospheric Quasi-Stationary Waves

G. Wolf et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

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Review Astronomy & Astrophysics

Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth

Jonathan R. Buzan et al.

ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES, VOL 48, 2020 (2020)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

William J. Merryfield et al.

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Forecasts of Opportunity Opening Windows of Skill, Subseasonal and Beyond

[Anonymous]

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY (2020)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences

Julien Boe et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Heatwaves, droughts, and fires: Exploring compound and cascading dry hazards at the pan-European scale

Samuel Jonson Sutanto et al.

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Increasing occurrence of heat waves in the terrestrial Arctic

Srdjan Dobricic et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Early adaptation to heat waves and future reduction of air-conditioning energy use in Paris

Vincent Viguie et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Role of Abnormally Enhanced MJO over the Western Pacific in the Formation and Subseasonal Predictability of the Record-Breaking Northeast Asian Heatwave in the Summer of 2018

Pang-Chi Hsu et al.

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation

Wim Thiery et al.

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS (2020)

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Article Multidisciplinary Sciences

Summer soil drying exacerbated by earlier spring greening of northern vegetation

Xu Lian et al.

SCIENCE ADVANCES (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions

Kai Kornhuber et al.

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

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Review Environmental Studies

Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change

Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano et al.

WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-CLIMATE CHANGE (2020)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Analog Forecasting of Extreme-Causing Weather Patterns Using Deep Learning

Ashesh Chattopadhyay et al.

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS (2020)

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Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Dynamical and thermodynamical drivers of variability in European summer heat extremes

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez et al.

CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2020)

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Article Environmental Sciences

Human influence on frequency of temperature extremes

Ting Hu et al.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS (2020)

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