An integrated model based on deep kernel extreme learning machine and variational mode decomposition for day-ahead electricity load forecasting

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasts are critical for the secure and economic operation of power systems. This paper presents a computationally efficient and powerful three-stage model to accurately forecast short-term electricity load. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) was used in the first stage to extract features from the historical load signal. The stacked kernel extreme learning machine (KELM)-based auto-encoders were utilized in the unsupervised feature learning-based second stage. In the third stage, the high-order learned features were used as the inputs for the KELM-based regression model. The proposed deep KELM architecture combines stacked KELM-based auto-encoders and a KELM-based regression model to forecast short-term electricity load effectively. In order to examine the performance improvement of the proposed forecasting model, several performance comparison tests were realized using publicly available electricity load and day-ahead forecast data from the Turkish transmission system operator (TSO). The proposed model results were compared with state-of-the-art deep extreme learning machine (ELM) architectures as well as the benchmark forecasting models based on original ELM, KELM, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and regression tree (RT). The comparison results indicated that the proposed model outperformed state-of-the-art architectures and was significantly more successful than the TSO model.

Automated summary

This paper proposes a computationally efficient and powerful three-stage model to accurately forecast short-term electricity load. The model utilizes variational mode decomposition (VMD) for feature extraction, stacked kernel extreme learning machine (KELM)-based auto-encoders for unsupervised feature learning, and a KELM-based regression model for load forecasting. The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art architectures and the TSO model.