Estimating central tendency from a single spot measure: A closed-form solution for lognormally distributed biomarker data for risk assessment at the individual level

Exposure-based risk assessment employs large cross-sectional data sets of environmental and biomarker measurements to predict population statistics for adverse health outcomes. The underlying assumption is that long-term (many years) latency health problems including cancer, autoimmune and cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and asthma are triggered by lifetime exposures to environmental stressors that interact with the genome. The aim of this study was to develop a specific predictive method that provides the statistical parameters for chronic exposure at the individual level based upon a single spot measurement and knowledge of global summary statistics as derived from large data sets. This is a profound shift in exposure and health statistics in that it begins to answer the question How large is my personal risk? rather than just providing an overall population-based estimate. This approach also holds value for interpreting exposure-based risks for small groups of individuals within a community in comparison to random individuals from the general population.