期刊
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
卷 397, 期 -, 页码 128-134出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.02.033
关键词
Early warning indicators; Clusters tracking; Positive feedback; Negative feedback; Regime shifts; Stability of ecosystems; Desertification; Tipping points; Bistability; Continuous transition; Discontinuous transition
资金
- Israel Science Foundation [1427/15]
Catastrophic shifts are known to pose a serious threat to ecology, and a reliable set of early warning indicators is desperately needed. However, the tools suggested so far have two problems. First, they cannot discriminate between a smooth transition and an imminent irreversible shift. Second, they aimed at predicting the tipping point where a state loses its stability, but in noisy spatial system the actual transition occurs when an alternative state invades. Here we suggest a cluster tracking technique that solves both problems, distinguishing between smooth and catastrophic transitions and to identify an imminent shift in both cases. Our method may allow for the prediction, and thus hopefully the prevention of such transitions, avoiding their destructive outcomes. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据