Drivers in carbon dioxide, air pollutants emissions and health benefits of China's clean vehicle fleet 2019-2035

Clean vehicle fleet will greatly benefit air quality and climate change mitigation. Here, we employ an integrated model to systematically investigated the contribution of combined clean vehicle policies to emissions, exposure, and health benefits from a regional perspective 2019-2035 in China. We find that driven by clean vehicle polices, the national vehicle CO2 will likely to peak around 2028 with about 1327 million tons, and then reduce by 7.8% from 2028 to 2035. The developed region will peak CO2 before 2030, while the developing region probably peak after 2030. In general, most air pollutants emissions from vehicles will decrease, subsequently leading to obvious PM2.5 and O3 exposure decrease. About 68 thousand PM2.5 related and 33 thousand O3 related deaths will be avoided 2019-2035 nationwide. Note that the health benefits are unequal, with higher PM2.5-O3 related excess deaths be avoided per 100000 in developed region than developing region. Besides, results show that emission standard upgrade contributes largest to emission reduction and related health benefits, followed by electric vehicles, road-to-railways and waterways, and fuel consumption regulation in general. This work is able to provide valuable information for policy makers to collaboratively reduce CO2, air pollutants and premature deaths in China and other developing countries.

Automated summary

Clean vehicle policies will greatly benefit air quality and climate change mitigation. The study finds that due to these policies, national vehicle CO2 emissions in China will likely peak around 2028 and then decrease by 7.8% from 2028 to 2035. Most regions will experience a decrease in air pollutants emissions, leading to significant reductions in PM2.5 and O3 exposure. Approximately 68,000 PM2.5-related deaths and 33,000 O3-related deaths will be avoided nationwide from 2019 to 2035.