Wolves' contribution to structural change in grazing systems among swiss alpine summer farms: The evidence from causal random forest

The return of wolves to Swiss mountains and the damage they cause to sheep and goat herds in the region have raised concerns about a consequent wave of farm closures. In this paper, we examine the relationship between wolf attacks and the decline of Alpine summer farms, a specific high-altitude farm type. We collected farm structure data and monitoring data on wolf attacks between 2004 and 2021 and analysed them using a causal random forest method, enabling a detailed analysis of the relation between wolf attacks and the number of different types of Alpine summer farms at a regional level. The results show that the farming systems are unaffected by incidental and infrequent wolf attacks, but that a high number of wolf attacks in a region is related to faster decrease in number of grazing systems where sheep are most vulnerable to such attacks. In contrast, systems that allow for better herd protection tend to show an increase in areas with frequent wolf attacks.

Automated summary

The return of wolves in Swiss mountains has led to concerns over the closure of farms due to the damage caused to sheep and goat herds. This study examines the relationship between wolf attacks and the decline of Alpine summer farms. By analyzing farm structure data and monitoring data on wolf attacks from 2004 to 2021, the study finds that while occasional and infrequent wolf attacks have little impact on farming systems, a high number of attacks in a region leads to a faster decrease in grazing systems vulnerable to such attacks. However, systems with better herd protection tend to see an increase in areas with frequent wolf attacks.