期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
卷 43, 期 10, 页码 4687-4701出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/joc.8111
关键词
CMIP5; CMIP6; concurrent heatwaves; CORDEX-East Asia phase 2; daytime heatwaves; multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains; nighttime heatwaves; representative concentration pathways (RCPs); shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)
The adverse impacts of concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves on human health are greater due to reduced recovery time. This study projects increased occurrence of concurrent heatwaves in East Asia under different scenarios. The intensity and spatial extent of these heatwaves are expected to increase significantly, particularly in Indochina, East and West China, and India. If current greenhouse gas emissions continue, East Asia will experience unprecedented heat stress in the future.
The adverse impacts of extreme heat on human health when a concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwave (CDNHW) occurs are greater than when daytime or nighttime heatwaves occur individually, because of the reduced recovery time from heat exposure. This study projects increases in CDNHW over the whole of East Asia under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are used to define a CDNHW, are calculated of 3-hourly temperatures of 25 km horizontal resolution produced by 12 general circulation model and regional climate model chains participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia phase 2 project. In Historical simulation (1981-2005), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW from April to September area-averaged in East Asia are 10.9 days and 0.9%, respectively. In projections for the future (2071-2100), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW will be 3 weeks and 3.7% (RCP2.6), 2 months and 20.5% (RCP8.5), 2 months and 15.6% (SSP1-2.6), and 3 months and 45.7% (SSP5-8.5). In addition, it is expected that the CDNHW intensity will increase, and the spatial extent of CDNHW will be extended. Although a CDNHW lasting less than 3 days is the most common, the proportion of CDNHWs lasting more than 10 days, compared to the total CDNHW frequency, will increase to 1.2% (RCP2.6), 7.2% (RCP8.5), 6.1% (SSP1-2.6), and 17.3% (SSP5-8.5) from 0.2% (Historical). Both occurrence rate and intensity of CDNHW will increase to a relatively large extent in Indochina, East and West China, and India. If the current greenhouse gas emissions continue, East Asia will experience unprecedented heat stress because the frequency and intensity of CDNHWs, which rarely occur during present-day, will increase significantly over all regions by the end of the 21st century.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据