21st Century Scenario Forcing Increases More for CMIP6 Than CMIP5 Models

Although the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) protocol provides an experiment to estimate effective radiative forcing (ERF), it is only quantified for few models. We present new estimates of ERF for models participating in CMIP6 by applying the method developed in Fredriksen et al. (2021, ), and validate our approach with available fixed-SST forcing estimates. We estimate ERF for experiments with abrupt changes of CO2, 1% increase of CO2, historical forcings, and future scenarios, and demonstrate that CMIP6 ERF is lower than CMIP5 ERF at the end of the historical period, but grows faster than CMIP5 in the future scenarios, ending up at higher levels than CMIP5 at the end of the 21st century. The simulated radiative efficiency of CO2 has not changed much, suggesting that the larger future increase in CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is important for explaining the forcing difference.

Automated summary

We provide new estimates of effective radiative forcing (ERF) for models participating in CMIP6 by using a method developed in Fredriksen et al. (2021) and validating it with available fixed-SST forcing estimates. Our results show that CMIP6 ERF is lower than CMIP5 ERF at the end of the historical period but grows faster in the future scenarios, reaching higher levels than CMIP5 by the end of the 21st century. The relatively larger future increase in CO2 concentrations in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is an important factor in explaining the forcing difference.