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Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hai Lin et al.
Summary: This study evaluates the ability of 10 Subseasonal-to-Seasonal prediction models to predict above-normal temperatures in western North America 2-3 weeks in advance. It is found that most models were able to predict the high temperatures in Western Canada during June 28-July 4 as early as June 10. However, for forecasts initialized earlier than June 17, none of the models could accurately capture the magnitude of the observed temperature anomaly. The study identifies the importance of two processes: an upper tropospheric wave train associated with the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in Southeast Asia, and an anomalous North Pacific atmospheric river leading to high moisture conditions. Most models were able to predict the wave train across the North Pacific, but a realistic representation of moisture transport and its pattern appears crucial for the extended-range forecast of this heatwave.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Emily Neal et al.
Summary: The study investigates the meteorological and dynamical conditions that led to extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest from late June to early July 2021. It finds that an upper-level atmospheric blocking and surface cyclogenesis off the coast of Alaska contributed to the extreme heat event. The study also highlights the critical role of a localized non-diabatic source in the formation and strength of the blocking.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
D. L. Schumacher et al.
Summary: In late June 2021, a heatwave with unusually high temperatures occurred in western North America, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. The study finds that the physical drivers of this event are the anticyclonic circulation aloft, which converts potential energy into sensible heat, and the establishment of deep atmospheric boundary layers facilitated by mountainous terrain and dry soils. Anomalous soil moisture also contributes to the temperature rise. The research suggests that similar large-scale atmospheric circulation driven by enhanced thermodynamic drivers could result in even more extreme temperatures, particularly in a warmer climate.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Sjoukje Y. Philip et al.
Summary: In late June 2021, record-breaking temperatures in the US and Canada's Pacific Northwest resulted in increased deaths and health issues. Through a multi-model, multi-method analysis, it was found that human-induced climate change significantly influenced the probability and intensity of these extreme heat waves. The study emphasizes the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the significant consequences of our rapidly warming climate.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
C. P. Morice et al.
Summary: HadCRUT5 is a new version of a global surface temperature data set, incorporating sea-surface temperature and land near-surface air temperature measurements. Two variants are produced for different applications, with the combination of revised input data sets and statistical analysis resulting in greater warming of the global average over the entire record period.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Bill Bell et al.
Summary: The extension of the ERA5 reanalysis back to 1950 improves the previously published segment covering 1979 to the present by assimilating more traditional observations and utilizing early satellite data. The global surface temperature anomalies and precipitation variability show high correlations with observations, despite significant differences in representing specific regions. Areas for improvement include assimilating tropical cyclone data and enhancing the representation of surface temperatures over Australia.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
James E. Overland
Summary: The extreme heat event that hit the Pacific Northwest in late June 2021 caused hundreds of deaths, loss of marine life, and forests. The event was triggered by the split of the polar vortex in the Arctic, accompanied by warming, which may represent a critical state in large-scale atmospheric circulation variability.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Keith B. Rodgers et al.
Summary: Climate variability plays a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts, and greenhouse warming alters variance spectra of Earth system variables, leading to a wide range of changes. The modeling results have important implications for climate adaptation, resource management, seasonal predictions, and assessing stressors on terrestrial and marine ecosystems.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Elisabeth A. Lloyd et al.
ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
(2020)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Scott N. Williamson et al.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2020)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hans Hersbach et al.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2020)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sonia I. Seneviratne et al.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Laura C. Slivinski et al.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2019)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jianhua Lu et al.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2009)