Projections of National-Gridded Emissions of Hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) in China

This studypresents the potential impacts of HFO emissionson climate mitigation and TFA production, which helps to support thepolicy making for HFC/HFO management. Hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) are beingused as substitutesfor potentgreenhouse gas hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). However, the use and environmentalimpacts of HFOs are of great concern due to the rapid degradationof HFOs to produce persistent and phytotoxic trifluoroacetic acid(TFA). Here, we provide a comprehensive projection of HFO emissionsin China during 2024-2060 for the first time. Under the KigaliAmendment to the Montreal Protocol, China's HFO emissions areestimated to increase from 1.7 (1.3-2.3) to 148.8 (111.4-185.4)kt in 2024-2060 with cumulative emissions of 2.8 (2.0-3.5)Gt, and cumulative reduced HFCs emissions are evaluated to be 5.4Gt CO2-equivalent. High HFO emissions would be distributedmainly in the North China Plain and the eastern and coastal areas.HFO-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) contributes most of HFO emissionswith a cumulative emission of 1.7 Gt in 2024-2060, while thecumulative increment of TFA deposition from HFO-1234yf emissions wouldreach 0.4-1.0 Gt. The long-term national-gridded HFO emissioninventories can provide scientific support for evaluating the environmentalrisks of HFOs and developing HFC phase-out pathways for addressingclimate change.

Automated summary

This study presents a comprehensive projection of HFO emissions in China during 2024-2060, providing scientific support for evaluating the environmental risks of HFOs and developing HFC phase-out pathways for addressing climate change. The use and environmental impacts of HFOs, as substitutes for potent greenhouse gas hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), are of great concern due to the rapid degradation of HFOs to produce persistent and phytotoxic trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). High HFO emissions would mainly be distributed in the North China Plain and the eastern and coastal areas.