Predicting future GB heat pump electricity demand

To meet net zero carbon targets by 2050s, countries with cold winters, such as Great Britain (GB), will turn to low carbon domestic heating systems such as electric heat pumps. In this paper, a statistical model is developed using measured performance data from over 550 heat pumps installed in GB homes in 2012. The model is used to predict the additional load on the GB electricity generation and distribution infrastructure for various current and future (2050) climates, dwelling energy efficiencies and heat pump deployment scenarios. For a cold year in the 2020s, a 100% uptake of heat pumps in the existing GB dwelling stock gave a peak electricity demand for the heat pumps of 78 GW and an annual electricity demand of 189 TWh. When added to the other, existing electricity demand, this represents an increase in the GB peak electricity demand in excess of 100% and an annual electricity demand increase of around 60%. Making reasonable assumptions about heat pumps' future efficiency and use, and the future climate and dwelling stock fabric efficiency, and assuming 80% heat pump uptake and no load shifting, the peak heat pump electricity demand for a cold year in the 2050s halved to 37 GW. By shifting demand for water and space heating the 2020s cold year peak demand reduced by 15%. The work provides a more robust estimate of future GB heat pump electricity demands than any previously available. The predicted future ramp rates, peak and annual total electricity demands, are lower than predicted by previous analysts. (c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Automated summary

To meet the net zero carbon targets by 2050, countries with cold winters like Great Britain will utilize low carbon domestic heating systems such as electric heat pumps. This study develops a statistical model using performance data from heat pumps installed in British homes, predicting the impact on electricity demand under different climate, energy efficiency, and heat pump deployment scenarios. The results suggest that with 100% heat pump uptake in existing dwellings in the 2020s, there will be a significant increase in peak electricity demand and annual electricity demand. However, by making reasonable assumptions and implementing load shifting, the peak heat pump electricity demand in the 2050s is expected to decrease by half.