期刊
ENERGY
卷 270, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.126831
关键词
Resilience; China?s energy system; Oil import shortages; System dynamics
China's energy system shows resilience in dealing with long-term oil import shortages by implementing energy transition, improving efficiency, and making technological breakthroughs.
As a resource for human survival, energy is inevitably affected by the turbulence of the world. More than 70% of China's dependence on foreign oil poses a potential threat to its energy security. Generally speaking, short-term oil import shortages can be solved through strategic reserves, emergency production and other measures. However, the long-term import shortage must be addressed through energy transition, efficiency improvement and technological breakthroughs. To explore the ability of China's energy system (CES) to cope with the long-term oil import shortage, we established a CES resilience model under the 17 scenarios of long-term oil import shortage based on the resilience theory and system dynamics (SD). The research conclusions are: CES is relatively resilient and can better cope with long-term oil import shortages. Different measures have different mechanisms for restoring system performance, and the measures during the recovery period should be reason-ably configured. Compared with the radical energy transition path, the resilience of CES under the steady energy transition path is about 10% higher.
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