Energy Planning of Renewable Energy Sources in an Italian Context: Energy Forecasting Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems in the Residential Sector

Solar photovoltaic systems will play a key role in the country's energy mix thanks to their ability to meet increasing energy needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the potential of solar photovoltaic energy, several criticalities remain, such as the intermittent nature and the need for significant land use for its implementation. In this regard, this work aimed at evaluating the photovoltaic potentiality in a national context by 2030 and 2050, considering only installations on the roof surfaces of existing buildings, i.e., without consuming additional land. This study has allowed the answering of three key points: (i) the roof surface could represent a valuable and alternative solution for new installations, since it could amount to around 450 km(2), (ii) the national target cannot be reached by only using installations on existing buildings, although some regions could get close to the target by 2050, and (iii) long-term energy incentives should be implemented branching out to each national region, considering their photovoltaic potential. Finally, a regional potential index was also defined, capable of evaluating the photovoltaic potential in each region, helping policymakers to adopt the most suitable energy strategies.

Automated summary

Solar photovoltaic systems will play a crucial role in the country's energy mix as they can meet growing energy demands while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, challenges such as intermittency and land use need to be addressed. This study evaluates the potential of photovoltaic installations on existing buildings' rooftops without additional land consumption. The findings suggest that rooftops have significant potential, but additional measures and incentives are required to achieve national targets by 2050.