Geothermal Potential of Hot Dry Rock in South-East Baltic Basin Countries-A Review

The beginning of 2022 was a time of major changes in the perception of energy availability and security in European countries. The aggression of Russia against Ukraine destabilizing the European energy economy, combined with the withdrawal from fossil fuels which has been going on for a dozen years, has strengthened activities to introduce new energy technologies based on renewable energy sources. One of the most promising and stable sources of renewable energy is geothermal energy, in particular enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in hot dry rocks (HDR). These deposits occur at a great depth in almost every place on Earth, but due to their low permeability, they require hydraulic fracturing, which results in high investment costs. This technology has been developed for several decades. The current situation in Europe seems to confirm that its rapid development to a level that guarantees stable and profitable operation is crucial. This is of particular importance in the case of former member states of the economic zone of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, which until recently were heavily dependent on Russian energy. This review, based on the latest available data, covers potential HDR prospective areas in the countries of the south-eastern Baltic basin, including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland. It is specific to this region that the original heat flux density is lower as a result of the paleoclimatic effect associated with the youngest ice age; however, thermal conditions do not deviate too much compared to western Europe, especially Rhine Graben, and significantly exceed the conditions of Finland, where an EGS project is currently being operated. In Lithuania, the most prospective area is the ZNI intrusion (south of Klaipeda), characterized by a geothermal gradient of up to 40 degrees C/1000 m. In addition, the Precambrian batholith south of Liepaja (Latvia) and the Rapakivi granites in the north and center of Estonia are promising EGS sites. Poland has relatively the most explored EGS potential, in both volcanic, crystalline and sedimentary rocks, especially in the area of the Szczecin Trough, Gorzow Block, Moglino-Lodz Trough and Karkonosze Mountains. Unfortunately, local tectonic conditions, in particular the development of faults and natural fracture zones that affect the directions of fracture propagation during hydraulic fracturing, have not been sufficiently recognized, which is one of the main barriers to the expansion of EGS pilot projects in these countries. These issues present challenges for the researchers, especially in terms of petrophysical analyses of rocks in target zones and local stress conditions, which have a key impact on fracturing operations and profitability of the systems. Despite high investment costs on the one hand and a significant slowdown in the global economy in 2022 on the other, it remains hopeful that the authorities of individual countries will decide to accelerate research work, leading to the implementation of pilot projects of EGS installations, and that this technology will be further improved to ensure a stable clean energy supply.

Automated summary

The beginning of 2022 witnessed major changes in energy availability and security in Europe, with Russia's aggression against Ukraine causing instability in the European energy economy and the ongoing transition away from fossil fuels. This has led to a focus on introducing new energy technologies based on renewable sources, such as geothermal energy. Geothermal energy, specifically enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in hot dry rocks (HDR), is considered a promising and stable source of renewable energy. However, the high investment costs associated with hydraulic fracturing, needed due to the low permeability of these deposits, pose a challenge. This review explores the potential HDR areas in the southeastern Baltic basin countries, highlighting the need for further research and addressing barriers to EGS expansion.