Climate warming interacts with other global change drivers to influence plant phenology: A meta-analysis of experimental studies

Shifts in plant phenology influence ecosystem structures and functions, yet how multiple global change drivers interact to affect phenology remains elusive. We conducted a meta-analysis of 242 published articles to assess interactions between warming (W) and other global change drivers including nitrogen addition (N), increased precipitation (IP), decreased precipitation (DP) and elevated CO2 (eCO(2)) on multiple phenophases in experimental studies. We show that leaf out and first flowering were most strongly affected by warming, while warming and decreased precipitation were the most pronounced drivers for leaf colouring. Moreover, interactions between warming and other global change drivers were common and both synergistic and antagonistic interactions were observed: interactions W + IP and W + eCO(2) were frequently synergistic, whereas interactions W + N and W + DP were mostly antagonistic. These findings demonstrate that global change drivers often affect plant phenology interactively. Incorporating the multitude of interactions into models is crucial for accurately predicting plant responses to global changes.

Automated summary

We conducted a meta-analysis of 242 published articles to assess the interactions between warming and other global change drivers on plant phenology. We found that warming had the strongest effect on leaf out and first flowering, while warming and decreased precipitation were the most pronounced drivers for leaf colouring. Interactions between warming and other drivers were common, with both synergistic and antagonistic effects observed.