Does climate change impact the potential habitat suitability and conservation status of the national bird of Peru (Rupicola peruvianus) ?

Due to massive deforestation and forest fires, the cock-of-the-rock or tunqui (Rupicola peruvianus), the national bird of Peru, is under serious threat in the country. One of the major impediments to conservation of the species is a lack of knowledge about its distribution at the national level. In this study, we aimed to fill this gap using 929 locational records of the species and a MaxEnt Maximum Entropy model incorporating18 bioclimatic and ecological variables to predict the current and potential future (2050 and 2070) distribution of R. peruvianus under different climate change scenarios (i.e. RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5). The key environmental and ecological factors determining the distribution of R. peruvianus are ecosystem type, relative humidity, percentage tree cover, mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio08), and altitude. We predict that the area of High potential habitat suitability, currently 1.1% (13,600 km(2)), is likely to increase under all climate change scenarios. However, the area of moderate and low potential habitat suitability, 4.3% (55, 800 km(2)), and 7.6% (98, 100 km(2)) respectively, as well as total habitat, is predict to decrease. Currently, and under future scenarios, > 40% of the species habitat will need restoration because it is currently degraded. Of great concern is that most important habitats of R. peruvianus are not currently encompassed by Peru's protected network and not are they likely to be in the future.

Automated summary

Due to deforestation and forest fires, the national bird of Peru, the cock-of-the-rock, is under serious threat. This study predicts that the current and future distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, and restoration efforts will be needed for over 40% of the habitat. It is concerning that the important habitats of the species are not currently protected and are unlikely to be in the future.